Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
856 am PDT Wed Mar 12 2014
building high pressure will result in dry weather and milder
temperatures for the rest of the week. Breezy north to east winds
will decrease today across the Sierra Nevada and Lake County.
Short term discussion (today through saturday)...
high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds into northern
California into the weekend bringing warmer temperatures and dry
weather. North to northeast winds should decrease today as the
surface pressure gradient decreases with weakening high pressure
over the Great Basin. Some gusts 40 to 50 mph in Lake County
overnight but are decreasing so Wind Advisory was expired. Wind gusts
50 to 70 mph in some areas of the Sierra, such as Duncan Peak
still this morning so Wind Advisory until 11 am looks good. The
winds should decrease this afternoon as the gradient weakens.
Temperatures are expected to warm up int the low to mid 70s for the
valley and upper 40s to low 60s in the mountains, which is similar
to a few degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon. A wave moves
through to the north on Friday which may bring a few clouds across
the north and a little cooler temperatures. Temperatures will warm
into the upper 70s to low 80s in the valley and 50s and 60s in the
mountains on the weekend as high pressure ridge moves over the
area. Temperatures may be near record in some locations over the
Extended discussion (sunday through wednesday)
High pressure will remain in control through Sunday and Monday,
bringing continued dry weather and warm temperatures. Look for
highs to potentially reach the lower 80s across much of the
Longer range models continue to hint at a low pressure system
approaching northern California for the middle of next week. The
GFS is the most progressive, with a weak closed low moving inland
over norcal whereas the European model (ecmwf) holds the system off until late
Wednesday or Thursday. Confidence is low in timing and track of
the system, but have introduced "slight chance" wording to
highlight the potential for unsettled weather.
Epac high pres conts to bld inld with VFR conds ovr intr norcal thru
Thu. In SAC Vly, LCL nly sfc wnd gsts up to 30 kts poss this mrng
with wnd dcrsg this aftn into eve. Omtns, LCL North-East sfc wnd gsts up
to 45 kts poss dcrsg up to 25 kts this eve.
Wind Advisory until 11 am PDT this morning West Slope northern