Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sacramento California
156 PM PST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

cold night tonight with some areas dropping a bit below the
freezing mark. Cool but mainly dry conditions setting up for the
weekend. Some uncertatinty next week with some models showing
unsetteled weather and others not. Check back in for details next
week later.

still some fairly good showers pushing over foothills aras from
Placerville southward to just east of Jackson. These showers will
likely cause some localized accumulations of around an inch or so
and as low as about 1500 feet. All this activity is fairly
scattered and should quickly decrease with sunset later this
afternoon or early evening.

Cool night tonight...have decided to not upgrade freeze watch to
warning. Looks like winds should increase a bit later tonight in
North Valley which should keep widespread freezing temperatures to
mainly localized areas.

Thanksgiving day all the way through Sunday...large upper low
will still be hanging around for this entire time. Except for
some snow showers along the crest of the will bring
cool weather to the area...but mainly dry conditions. Rasch


Extended discussion (sunday through wednesday)
uncertainty remains for next week as large model differences
still exist. As Rex block shifts eastward, expansive upper level
low will head toward intermountain west. A few showers may linger
near the Sierra crest on Sunday with dry weather elsewhere. As
previous shift mentioned, GFS continues to show a more active
weather pattern throughout the week with a series of shortwaves
bringing rounds of precipitation to the area while European model (ecmwf) continues
ridging over norcal with dry weather through at least mid week.
Until differences can be resolved, have not made any big changes
to going forecast with broad-brushed chance of showers across the
area from Monday into mid-week. Of note, the wetter GFS solution
is warmer than we've seen with previous couple of storms which
would translate to higher snow levels (perhaps 7000 feet and
above). Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of normal.




VFR conditions for the taf sites over next 24 hours. Showers will
linger across the Sierra today. Winds will increase on Thursday
with gusts of 20-25kts possible across northern SAC valley.


Sto watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations