Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
327 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2014
building high pressure will result in dry weather and warm daytime
temperatures into early next week. A chance of precipitation
is possible midweek next week as a storm system moves by the area.
Short term discussion (today through saturday)...
warm and sunny day today with areas of breezy north to east winds.
Winds should decrease this afternoon and evening as the surface
pressure gradient weakens. Temperatures this afternoon are similar
to about 8 degrees warmer than yesterday. At 1 PM, temperatures
are in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the valley and upper 40s to 60s
in the mountains, which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Temperatures are expected to be about the same
tomorrow. Temperatures will be about the same to a little cooler
on Friday as a system moves through to the north bringing some
clouds. Ridge of high pressure moves over northern California for
the weekend bringing temperatures up into the upper 70s to low 80s
in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains which is about 10 to
20 degrees above normal for mid March. Near record temperatures
are possible over the weekend especially in the southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys.
Extended discussion (sunday through wednesday)
Strong ridging continues along the West Coast Sunday with high
temperatures upwards of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Slight
cooling on Monday but continued well above normal temperatures as
ridging aloft begins to weaken.
Medium range models showing significant differences beyond Sunday.
As ridging amplifies over norcal during the weekend, upstream
troughing in the epac deepens. Oper GFS progresses this wave
through Tuesday while the Gem and European model (ecmwf)-hires cut it off and keep
it offshore. Dprog/dt of the GFS indicates earlier runs with a
scenario more similar to the current Gem/Euro solutions. With
more consolidated westerlies in the GFS, the next upstream short
wave is forecast to dig from 45n into the County Warning Area late Wed into Thu.
Meanwhile, the Gem/Euro are similar in injecting next wave into
the offshore cut-off and progressing that through Wed/Thu. In either
scenario, models point to an increasing chance of precip towards
the middle of next week with cooling back to more seasonable
High pressure building in over the area will bring clear skies
and VFR conditions to interior norcal next 24 hours. North winds
will die down to 10 kts or less for valley taf sites by around
01z. East winds over the Sierra will also reduce by sunset to
around 10-20 kts. -Dvc