Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
940 am MDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014
Synopsis...high pressure aloft over Utah will shift east of the
state later today. Moisture will increase ahead of a Pacific
trough which will settle into the Great Basin late in the week.
Discussion...yet another day of warm and mostly dry high pressure
has settled over the intermountain west...with mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies over much of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Off
to the south...Tropical Storm Odile is spinning over the Gulf of
California and pushing moisture into primarily Arizona and New
Mexico. Satellite imagery shows some of this deeper moisture just
barely pushing into far southern Utah...with about one inch
precipitable water over St. George. That said...most of the
heavier thunderstorms are still expected to remain south of the
Utah/Arizona border...with mostly diurnal terrain-based convection
expected through this afternoon.
Heading into Thursday and Friday...a Pacific trough is still
forecast to move into the Great Basin. Ahead of this
trough...increased southerly flow should help draw some moisture
northward into Utah...setting up what could be an active Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night...especially across the northern
half of the County Warning Area. Will take a closer look at the 12z runs with
respect to severe potential with this trough.
The forecast for today looks to be in good shape and no updates
are planned this morning.
Aviation...operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the
kslc terminal through the valid taf period. Southeast surface winds
are expected to switch to the northwest between 19-20z...with a 30
percent chance that the switch will be delayed an hour or two. VFR
conditions will hold under mostly clear skies.
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