Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1031 am MDT Sat Aug 30 2014
Synopsis...a cold front will push through northern Utah this
afternoon and evening before stalling over central Utah tomorrow
morning. A drier and more stable pattern will return for the
Discussion...widespread cloud cover over northern and central
portions of the forecast area this morning ahead of the
approaching Pacific northwest trough. Seeing a good deal of radar
echoes over primarily western Utah but the radar signature and
current observations indicate this is just about all virga.
The system and associated cold front will move across northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming this evening and overnight...but enough
moisture and instability will exist out ahead of it for a threat
of convection this afternoon...primarily over the high terrain.
Some threat of microburst winds with moisture primarily moving
into middle and upper levels...but cloud cover will be a limited
factor with respect to this threat. Increasing west/SW flow ahead of
the front will allow for some breezy winds...especially over
central and southern Utah.
Despite decent instability the system still looks moisture
starved...so am not expecting precipitation associated with this system
to be particularly impressive. However...the airmass behind the
front will be significantly cooler as 700 mb temperatures drop from about
+12c this afternoon to around +4c tomorrow morning over northern
Utah. As a result...maxes tomorrow should be in excess of 10f
below values observed today...well below climatology. The front is still
prognosticated to stall over central Utah tomorrow...so cooling will be
limited for southern Utah.
One last wave from the trough is expected to graze northern Utah
Monday afternoon...but airmass will continue to dry so feel the
main precipitation threat ends by Sunday morning. A drier and more stable
airmass will move in Monday and persist through at least midweek.
No updates expected to the forecast this morning.
Aviation...moderately gusty southerly winds are expected to prevail
at the kslc terminal into early afternoon. A weak cold front is
expected to push through the terminal between 19-20z switching
surface winds to a gusty west/northwest thereafter for the remainder
of the day...and a 30 percent chance exists that gusts will approach
Airport weather warning criteria of 30 miles per hour this afternoon. Showers
in the vicinity of the terminal could produce erratic gusts as well
when the front pushes through. Cloud decks will remain well above
7k feet throughout the taf period.
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