Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
943 PM MDT Monday Jun 1 2015
Synopsis...a cooler airmass is expected over northern Utah on
Tuesday behind a cold front while warm and dry conditions will
persist across the south. Another weak Pacific storm system will
clip northern Utah midweek.
Discussion...an trough elongated west to east remains centered over
the Pacific northwest this evening...although several embedded
disturbances continue to eject across the northern Great Basin and
into the northern rockies. Utah remains in a southwest flow
aloft...but a cold front at the surface through 700 mb levels has
already crossed northwest Utah. Gusty winds are still being reported
on both sides of the front...20-35 miles per hour per 8pm observation. The front is not
expected to progress much farther south since its upper support is
well north of the area.
A pocket of higher precipitable water of around 0.7-0.8 inches remains in place
over northwest Utah at this time...but much drier air has spread
into southern and central Utah. High-based showers are still in
place...mainly near the frontal boundary from around southern Salt
Lake County through southwest Wyoming. Very little of this is
evident on kmtx 0.5 degree slice...but can be seen on higher slices.
These will produce little if any rain through the rest of the
evening but brief stronger gusts from outflows are still possible
through the rest of the evening.
Winds...cloud cover and shower activity will trend downward
overnight. The front will result in colder temperatures
tomorrow...mainly across the northern half of the forecast area.
Southwest flow will remain in place for tomorrow...but with much
weaker forcing and continued drying of the airmass...would expect
little more than very isolated terrain-based thunderstorms across
northern Utah tomorrow.
Made minor updates mainly to reduce probability of precipitation for the rest of the night
and to tweak winds and sky.
Aviation...northwest winds will continue at the slc terminal
through 05 or 06z before turning back to southerly. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions under clearing skies tonight.
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