Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
342 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Synopsis...high pressure will remain in place through Wednesday.
A mainly dry cold front will cross northern and central Utah
Wednesday into Thursday and stall across central Utah Thursday.


Discussion...a few clouds have formed across the higher
terrain...otherwise mostly sunny skies and near to slightly above
normal temperatures can be found across much of the County Warning Area this
afternoon. High pressure will remain in place through Wednesday
morning. A trough moving across the Pacific northwest into the
northern intermountain region will push a mostly dry cold front
through northern and central portions of Utah Wednesday into early

As this cold front stalls across portions of central Utah
Thursday...expect middle-level moisture to increase south of the
boundary. This should provide sufficient lift for the development
of thunderstorms across portions of central and southern Utah
mainly south of the semi-stationary front Thursday afternoon and
possibly Friday afternoon. Increased probability of precipitation in these areas during
this period.

Things get interesting over next the 12z ec brings
quite a bit of tropical moisture related to the current Tropical
Storm Norbert into the area ahead of the next trough crossing the
Pacific northwest Sunday into Monday. The GFS does not tap this
moisture nearly as far north as the ec. Started increasing probability of precipitation as
a nod to the ec...but confidence in this portion of the forecast
is lower than average given the limited skill in the evolution of
tropical systems in the global models at this time scale.


Aviation...winds at the slc terminal should Switch Back to the
southeast between 02z and 04z...with southerly winds overnight
potentially increasing to the 10 to 15 knot range. VFR conditions
will prevail through the taf period under mostly clear skies.


Fire weather...gusty winds across central and southern Utah
will continue into this evening as a cold front makes its way
towards the state. Winds will decrease somewhat overnight...and
increase again early tomorrow afternoon. Portions of central and
southern Utah may see winds and relative humidity reach critical levels tomorrow
afternoon. However...with moist fuels across the forecast not anticipate any fire weather problems...and so no
highlights have been issued.

A cold front will move into northern Utah tomorrow and slowly
make its way southward. This is mainly a dry will have
little impact other than shifting winds to the northwest and
cooling temperatures a few degrees across northern and central

Moisture will increase across southeastern Utah on
Thursday...bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the higher terrain. Models suggest that moisture may spread
further north and west Sunday...which would lead to more
widespread showers and thunderstorms. However...confidence is models still do not agree as to how widespread moisture
will be on Sunday.


Slc watches/warnings/advisories...



For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service
visit... http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)

For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations