Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1038 PM MDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Update...aviation discussion updated to reflect thinking that
snow will impact the terminal starting around 09z. Previous
discussion had earlier timing for the onset of snow.
Synopsis...the next cold Pacific storm system will move south
through the state tonight through Tuesday. The storm will linger
over southern Utah for the middle portion of the week.
Discussion...cold front is near a kely-kvel line this evening.
Some gusty winds have developed along and behind the front. Gusts
in the 30-40 knots range have been common in northern Utah valley
locations from about Salt Lake County south...with a few gusts in
the lower 60s around Dugway earlier. Winds will tend to decrease
as the front continues to trek southward this evening and
overnight. Going wind highlights appear to cover the situation
Valley rain and mountain snow continue to develop over northern
Utah behind the front. As a much colder airmass moves in early
this morning...snow levels will quickly drop. 700 mb temperatures are
prognosticated to drop to around -10c over northern Utah...which would
support snow to valley floors. However...very warm ground
temperatures will limit any accumulations. Additionally...best
valley precipitation looks to occur before the coldest air arrives. There
remains some potential for lake effect showers tomorrow
morning...but a lake band would have to be quite strong to produce
much valley accumulations.
The main trough will shift into southern Utah by tomorrow
afternoon as it weakens...but cold pool instability will keep
showers going primarily over the higher terrain into tomorrow
evening. Going Winter Weather Advisory does a good job of covering
the expected totals and timing. The trough is expected to continue
to linger over southern Utah through Thursday...though associated
moisture will be limited.
Will need to update later to expire the Wasatch front portion of
the Wind Advisory. No additional updates planned this evening.
Aviation...winds at the slc terminal will remain from the north
through the taf period. Ceilings will remain below 7k feet above ground level through
most of Tuesday. MVFR conditions in snow showers will occur between
09z and 12z...though there is the potential for periods of MVFR
conditions to occur through about 14z.
Utah...Wind Advisory until 9 am MDT Tuesday for utz011-012.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for utz007>009.
Wind Advisory until 4 am MDT Tuesday for utz005.
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http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)