Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
859 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
Synopsis...a Pacific cold front will stall across central Utah
tonight with weak high pressure building in on Wednesday. Dry and
mild southwest flow will return for Thursday through Saturday.
Discussion...a shortwave trough currently lifting through the
northern rockies has left a trailing baroclinic zone draped across
central Utah. This boundary has served as a focus for convection
during the early evening hours...however as the parent trough
continues to lift away from the region continues to gradually
shift eastward away from the forecast area. Meanwhile a secondary
plume of shallow weak convection developed roughly along the
central/southern Wasatch crest early this evening...likely aided
by a subtle secondary middle level trough axis passing through
northern Utah. Updated earlier to account for this activity across
the central/southern Wasatch front and adjacent Wasatch Range.
This activity is also gradually shifting eastward and should exit
the forecast area by midnight.
The 700mb flow is forecast to back during the day Wednesday
inducing warm advection aloft...however a cool and stable airmass
at the surface will likely limit mixing...and keep temperatures
confined near climatology. A combination of continued warming
aloft...increased flow and a modifying airmass will allow for a
warming trend for the latter half of the week.
Aviation...north winds will continue at kslc through the evening
hours...before switching to light southerly after 06z. There is a
30 percent chance this wind shift does not occur at all...and
winds remain light northerly or light and variable. VFR conditions
will prevail through the period.
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