Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
925 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014
Synopsis...cold unsettled weather will linger through Monday.
High pressure will build for midweek.
Discussion...the frontal band crossed the northern County Warning Area late afternoon through
early evening with precipitation changing over to snow in most areas just
before it ended but no accumulation occurred on valley roads. The
northern mountains and mountain valleys had a fairly intense period of
The band is becoming less organized as it moves into central and
southwestern Utah and the front has already reached Milford. Precipitation with it
is still likely rain in most valleys that will be switching to
snow or a rain snow mix over time. Precipitation has been falling as snow
however in The Castle country valleys near price since middle afternoon
likely due to trapped cold air and some accumulation has been
occurring on roadways in that area. This precipitation should end once
the northwest surface flow becomes strong enough to scour out the
trapped cold airmass not long from now. Elsewhere in central and
southern Utah the threat of any valley travel impacts remains low and no
advisories planned. The band should dissipate early Sunday.
The next short wave to impact the County Warning Area currently extends from
central Idaho to northestern Nevada and is sliding southeastward. This should spread snow
showers back into northern Utah after midnight. Expect current scattered
coverage to expand as it reaches the Wasatch front and crosses
over the gsl. This should be all snow and could result in local
travel impacts in the valleys late tonight into Sunday morning
where heavier snow showers occur.
Looks like a fairly well defined break in the precipitation will occur
tomorrow afternoon once this next wave passes as ridging is a little
more amplified between it and the next upstream wave currently
nearing the britcol coast. This wave should also bring more snow
shower activity to the northern County Warning Area between about 06z and 18z Monday and
will probably have at least some impact on the Monday morning
Current suite of winter weather advisories looks on track and no
changes planned. Did cancel the Wind Advisory as winds diminished
fairly rapidly behind the front.
Precipitation ends quickly by Monday afternoon as upstream ridging moves in. The
latest GFS is a little wetter again in the warm advection northwest flow
for Tuesday/Tuesday night but this would likely still not generate very
Updated earlier to drop Wind Advisory headline and lowered wind
speeds. Also lowered probability of precipitation across the north for the evening.
Aviation...at the slc terminal VFR conditions will prevail with
ceilings above 7000 feet through about 08-09z with ceilings falling below
6000 feet after that. Snow showers will occasionally cross the
airfield between about 08z and 14z with IFR conditions likely in
the heavier showers. Winds will be mostly northerly but could
become light and variable or light southerly after about 11-12z.
Utah...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday for utz006-010.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for utz007>009.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Sunday for utz517.
Wyoming...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am MST Sunday for wyz021.
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