Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
858 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
Synopsis...high pressure will remain in place across the
region into early next week. A weak disturbance will move through
the high late Thursday through Friday. Then the ridge will
strengthen over the weekend. A stronger disturbance will lift
through the area Sunday night and Monday.
Discussion...a ridge has set up to our west this evening with a
cyclonically curved north to northwest flow over the County Warning Area around
the sheared remains of the trough axis that sits east-west along the Uinta
Convection associated with the trough axis has just about moved out
of the County Warning Area although light orographic precipitation is likely persisting
under the thick lower clouds across southwestern Wyoming and over the uintas.
Meanwhile the the weak trough that is lifting into the Great Basin
from California has set up a weak convergence downstream across southern Nevada
into southern Utah and convection fired in this area late in the day.
This continues at this time with some persistent cells forming
over and near Capitol Reef np and others westward across Kane Colorado and west
of Milford along the Nevada border. Have some concern that heavy
runoff from the Capitol Reef storms could be running through the
washes in that area but dont think it will result in significant
Latest models keep convection active across southwestern overnight into
Thursday then lift it northward Thursday afternoon as the California trough continues to lift
into the Great Basin. This feature then merges with the remnant
trough axis across northern Utah and slides east Thursday night through Friday.
Updated forecasts earlier to add probability of precipitation to the far south for the
evening. Updated again to keep probability of precipitation across southwestern through the night. No
additional updates planned.
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail at the slc terminal
through tonight with just scattered clouds. East winds will
switch to light southeasterly after about 04-05z.
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