Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1013 am MDT sun may 24 2015
Synopsis...a cool and moist northerly flow will remain across
the region through this evening. High pressure will slide east
across Utah late tonight through Tuesday...followed by the next
Pacific storm system to impact mainly the northern Great Basin
Discussion...the upper low positioned over south-central Wyoming
this morning will continue on a slow eastward track towards the
Central Plains states today. The still cool and moist air mass in
place over the region will keep things primed for scattered
convection area-wide through at least this evening. Weak high
pressure aloft will slide west-to-eats across the Great Basin late
tonight though Tuesday.
The position of the upper low a bit further to the north in
Wyoming will allow weak shortwaves rotating around the parent low
to track south across all of Utah through early this evening.
These dynamic features will remain rather subtle...even in the
water vapor imagery...but will supply sufficient dynamic lift in
this favorable air mass for showers/isolated thunderstorms just
about anywhere in the forecast area through this evening. Deep
convection outside of maybe northeast Utah will struggle to
develop today as the middle-levels have warmed slightly and 700-400mb
shear remains weak.
Precipitation will wind down late tonight as the upper low drifts off
into the plains states and weak high pressure aloft moves into the
Great Basin from the west. Terrain-based convection should fire
up again Monday...though suspect that precipitation will be somewhat
limited in areal coverage with the upper ridge moving through the
The upper low moving into the Pacific northwest/northern rockies
for Tuesday/Wednesday will bring a cyclonic west-southwest flow to
the northern/central Great Basin midweek. Impacts in terms of
showers/storms will likely be limited to the northern half of the
forecast area...with warmer and breezy conditions for the south.
Issued an earlier update to bring showers/storms in a bit earlier
across northern Utah today. Remainder of the forecast looks fine
at this time.
Aviation...winds at the slc terminal are expected to remain
northerly through 03z then shift back to southeast. Although there
is a 20 percent chance winds may Switch Back to southeast through
17z the winds will be light. Showers will be in the vicinity mainly
through about 20z with ceilings oscillating between 5500 and 7000 feet
above ground level. After 20z...ceilings will likely remain at or above 7000 feet above ground level.
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