Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
436 am MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Synopsis...a weak weather system will move southeast across the
region today...followed by high pressure for Thursday. The next
weakening storm system will cross the region Friday through


Short term (through 12z sunday)...northwest flow aloft prevails
across the intermountain region early this morning. A cold front
which crossed northern Utah Tuesday evening continued southward
overnight...and currently stretches across far southern Utah. This
boundary will make its way out of the forecast area by sunrise. A
handful of high elevation sites are gusting from the northwest in
the wake of this front...however these winds are expected to
diminish near or shortly after sunrise.

Looking upstream...a subtle shortwave is making its way through
the interior Pacific northwest/northern Great Basin. This feature
continue southeast across the forecast area during the day today.
Aside from a small chance of showers over the higher terrain and
an increase in cloud cover...little is expected with this wave
across the forecast area.

Middle level ridging is forecast to temporarily build across the
region Thursday allowing for a warming trend. This is downstream
from an approaching shortwave trough...which is forecast to
weaken and split as it moves inland Thursday night into Friday.
The southern portion of this split is forecast to eventually work
its way across the Desert Southwest Friday night into early
Saturday bringing a chance for showers to southern Utah. Meanwhile
the northern portion is expected to lift north of the forecast
area...but drag a trailing boundary into northern Utah Friday...then
linger across the area into Saturday bringing a chance for


Long term (after 12z sunday)...a fairly active period is expected
through the long term forecast. The cold front situated across the
state Saturday will weaken into Sunday...before moving
northwestward as a warm front. This front will become
quasistationary across far northwestern Utah Monday into
Tuesday...becoming a focus for a few showers and maybe even a
thunderstorm Monday afternoon. This front should move far enough
to the northwest by Tuesday to reduce the threat of any

A large Pacific system is expected to approach the West Coast of the
United States Monday. Warm southwest flow will develop across the
area Monday into Tuesday bringing the possibility of some of the
warmest temperature of the Spring to portions of Utah.

This Pacific system will strengthen as it crosses the coast and
moves into the Desert Southwest Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
00z GFS solution features a much stronger system for the eastern
Great Basin...with a closed low and a large amount of precipitation
for much of the County Warning Area. The 00z ec solution is more of a split open
wave as the system crosses the area.

The implications for each solution are rather confidence
remains low in any particular solution at this time. However...given
most model guidance indicates some type of trough will be moving
through the area Tuesday through Thursday...started the trend of
increasing probability of precipitation above climatology. If the GFS is correct...probability of precipitation are quite
low. The GFS solution would bring a significant precipitation event
to much of the area.


Aviation...light and variable winds will continue at the terminal
through 12-15z before becoming northerly once again.
Otherwise...high pressure will build into the area through the


Slc watches/warnings/advisories...



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