Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
954 PM MDT Friday Mar 14 2014
Synopsis...a fast-moving weather disturbance will cross northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight. High pressure will bring warm
and dry conditions to the region Sunday and Monday...followed by
another fast moving disturbance Monday night into Tuesday.
Discussion...a cold front associated with the shortwave trough
currently centered over western Montana pushed into northern Utah
this evening. This cold front brought with it a band of
precipitation...with only minor amounts of liquid reaching the
ground. The precipitation band is quite narrow since the bulk of the
upper dynamics will remain well north of the area. As a
result...this will quickly move through the area and skies will
clear later tonight in its wake. Expect a quick sprinkle in the
northern Utah valleys and brief light snow for the northern
mountains the next few hours.
The gradient behind the cold front combined with outflow from the
showers produced wind gusts over 40 miles per hour...but these winds have
already weakened behind the frontal band. Still...expect enhanced
northwest winds behind the front tonight across much of the forecast
area...with favored downslope regions seeing the strongest winds.
Models do produce stronger 500 and 700mb winds later tonight as a
strong jet along the back edge of the trough digs it south into
Colorado. These winds combined with favorable surface gradient and
increasing stability tonight across eastern Utah creates a concern
for strong downslope winds particularly in Castle country along the
Highway 10 corridor. Have gone with a Wind Advisory late tonight
through tomorrow morning for that zone.
High pressure will build back into the area for the weekend.
Lingering cold air behind the trough will hold temperatures a few
degrees cooler tomorrow...but warmer air will return for Sunday.
Besides adding the Wind Advisory...have updated the forecast mainly
to adjust winds and to trim probability of precipitation back for late tonight.
Aviation...winds at the slc terminal will remain out of the
northwest through Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts are expected to
decrease below 26kt between 04-05z and ceilings are likely to scatter
out after 06z.
Utah...Wind Advisory from 4 am to noon MDT Saturday for utz012.
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