Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
956 PM MDT Wednesday may 27 2015
Synopsis...an upper low moving across Idaho will impact much of
Utah through Thursday. High pressure will strengthen across the
region late in the week through the upcoming weekend resulting in
a warming and drying trend.
Discussion...the upstream upper level low remains centered over
Idaho this evening...although it continues to slowly sag closer to
Utah. The upper jet continues to rotate around the base of the
low...helping to contribute to increased shear that allowed some
storms to become strong today. The embedded shortwave disturbance
responsible for the bulk of the convection today is currently
crossing into northeastern Utah...with its tail extending into
southwest Utah. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
along this area for the next few hours...strongest across northeast
Utah and southwest Wyoming.
A moist airmass remains in place this evening...although
instability will progressively become less with the loss of
daytime heating. However...large scale lift ahead of the low along
with a weak embedded shortwave disturbance is currently firing up
a few thunderstorms across far northeast Nevada and northwest
Utah. These storms are expected to continue across portions of
northern Utah overnight...though not with nearly the strength or
coverage seen earlier.
The low will open into a trough and graze northern Utah tomorrow
before exiting the area tomorrow evening. Still enough shear to
maintain a few strong thunderstorms tomorrow...with things then
winding down fairly quickly tomorrow evening.
Updated the forecast mainly to adjust probability of precipitation for the remainder of
Aviation...southeast winds are expected to prevail at the slc
terminal by 05z. Another round of showers are possible...arriving
around 07-08z...which could bring a period with ceilings near or
below 6000ft above ground level and a 10 percent chance of MVFR conditions.
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