Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1002 am MDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Synopsis...a cold trough will impact primarily northern Utah as
it moves through the area this afternoon and Saturday. Another
trough will impact the area early next week before high pressure
returns for the latter part of the week.


Discussion...a deepening trough is moving through the Pacific
northwest this morning...with most of Utah and southwest Wyoming
still in the southwesterly flow warm sector out ahead of this
storm. The southern edge of this storm has already begun to impact
far northern Utah...with mostly cloudy skies and some light
precipitation over the area. Clouds and isolated showers are also
lingering in the southeastern quadrant of the remnants
of a Pacific low are sliding through Arizona today. That low
should eject out of the region this evening...with most of the
associated precipitation today staying over western Colorado and
New Mexico.

The trough coming out of the Pacific northwest should impact
northern and central Utah in earnest this afternoon and
evening. Models have sped up just a bit compared to yesterdays
runs...with the surface cold front prognosticated to move through the
Wasatch front in the late afternoon...and the best chance for
widespread moderate precipitation in the evening hours. Showers
should continue into Saturday morning as the middle-level cold pool
slides over the Utah/Idaho border...then showers will likely taper
off Saturday afternoon as the trough axis moves over Wyoming and
Colorado by 00z Sunday.

Updated the forecast this morning primarily to increase probability of precipitation for
this afternoon and confidence continues to increase
in the strength and precipitation field of this trough. Also
updated the sky cover...increasing it across the north and
southeast through today...and decreasing clouds across the
southwest. No further updates are anticipated this morning.


Aviation...southeast winds at the slc terminal this morning will
gradually increase in strength...becoming gusty after about 16 or
17z. Winds will shift to the northwest between 22z and 00z. Ceilings
will lower this afternoon...dropping below 7000ft between 22z and
00z. Rain showers this afternoon will become heavier after
00z...with periods of MVFR conditions expected between 00z and 06z.


Slc watches/warnings/advisories...



For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)

For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations