Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1000 PM MDT sun Mar 16 2014
Synopsis...a fast moving storm system will push a strong cold
front through the region Monday. A second...dry cold front will
push through northern Utah on Thursday.
Discussion...ridge axis shifting east of the area this evening
yielding to Pacific trough approaching from pacnw. High clouds
spreading into the area will gradually thicken through the night.
These clouds and increasing southerly flow ahead of the approaching
system should maintain generally mild temperatures through the
The fast-moving shortwave trough will push a strong cold front
across the forecast area tomorrow morning through early afternoon.
Winds will be the main issue as strong 700mb flow and thermal
packing and tight surface pressure gradient will result in strong
postfrontal winds throughout the area. Strongest winds will occur
across portions of northern Utah...favored downslope regions across
the eastern valleys and exposed high-elevation sites including
southwest Wyoming. Warnings and advisories were issued this
afternoon for the winds.
Precipitation will be limited to the north near the best upper-level
support...since the core of the storm will just graze northern Utah.
The bulk of the precipitation will fall over the northern Utah
mountains...and even then amounts are not expected to be large due
to the fast-moving nature of the front. However...with snow levels
falling rapidly behind the front...any precipitation in the valleys
should change to snow by tomorrow afternoon. Winter Weather Advisory
is in place for the northern mountains not so much for heavy snow
but more for the blowing snow in the strong winds.
A weak embedded shortwave disturbance still prognosticated to drop in from
the north for Tuesday. This will keep temperatures on the cool side
and maintain a few showers over the northern mountains. Temperatures
will rebound for Wednesday but a shallow dry cold front will
moderate temperatures again for Thursday. A near zonal flow will
then persist through the weekend keeping temperatures near normal
under a mostly dry airmass.
Made minor updates to sky cover for the remainder of the night.
Aviation...winds at the slc terminal the rest of night will remain
out of the south. The winds could become gusty after 10-11z through
around 14-15z when they shift to gusty northwest behind a cold
front. There is greater than a 40 percent chance of squall
conditions between 15-17z. VFR conditions prevail overnight. MVFR or
brief IFR conditions are expected in rain and snow showers behind
the front after about 15-17z.
Utah...Wind Advisory from 8 am to 9 PM MDT Monday for utz001-002-006-
Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for utz019-020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 am to 9 PM MDT Monday for
High Wind Warning from 8 am to 9 PM MDT Monday for utz003>005-
Wyoming...High Wind Warning from 8 am to 9 PM MDT Monday for wyz021.
For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)