Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
238 PM MDT Thursday may 28 2015
Synopsis...an upper low over the northern rockies will move east
into the plains states tomorrow. High pressure will strengthen
across the region this weekend...resulting in a substantial
warming and drying trend.
Short term (through 06z monday)...
a trough crossing Wyoming into Colorado will continue to provide
dynamic lift across the County Warning Area into the evening. Deep layer shear
near 40kts should keep the threat of organized convection into the
evening. Once the sun GOES down...should see a dramatic decrease
in areal coverage. Main threats will continue to be small
hail...gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.
Another round of convection is possible across mainly the southern
moutains and the western Uinta Mountains Friday afternoon/evening.
With less shear...expect mainly terrain forced convection.
After Friday...finally...an upper level ridge will build across the
area through the weekend. The warmest temperatures of the year are
forecast for much of Utah...with Salt Lake City expected to reach
the upper 80s by Sunday.
Long term (after 06z monday)...
significant warming and drying trend continues Monday. Storm
coverage will continue to thin out and become relegated to the
Gusty southerly winds continue through early next week as the ridge
shifts east of The Rockies. By midweek the next closed low traverses
the northern rockies...increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage
across the north. Expecting temperatures to cool to or just below
normal with the passage of a cool front by midweek.
Aviation...there is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms impacting
the slc terminal between 21z and 00z...with gusty erratic winds and
brief MVFR visibilities in heavy rain as the most likely impacts.
Otherwise...winds should remain out of the northwest through at
least 02z...before switching back to the southeast between 03z and
Fire weather...fairly similar temperature/humidity for the
rest of today compared to yesterday. It is once again somewhat
cool/moist across the north...and dry and warm across the south.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms however should continue to be
more evenly distributed across the state. The strongest activity
will bring a chance for cloud to ground lightning...brief heavy
rain...small hail...and gusty/erratic winds.
The pattern shifts tomorrow through the weekend as a ridge builds
in. Expect very warm conditions and a drying trend across all of
Utah. The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will thin
each day and be relegated to the mountains for the most part.
Southerly winds will become gusty Sunday...increasing through
Tuesday...with a strong likelihood of seeing critical meteorological
fire weather conditions Sunday into early next week.
Cooling and moistening conditions develop across the north by middle
week behind the next cool front. Showers should increase in coverage
again yet should not be as widespread as the last couple of weeks.
long term/fire weather...rogowski
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For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)