Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
354 am MST Friday Mar 6 2015
Synopsis...strong high pressure aloft along the West Coast
will maintain dry and generally warm conditions across the
region through early next week.
Short term (through 12z monday)...a blocking pattern created by the
high pressure still centered over the West Coast states and a weak
closed low over Baja California California will persist through tomorrow. A dry
and stable northwest flow remains in place over Utah in the
meantime...but the warming trend will continue.
The low is prognosticated to eject southeast tomorrow night while the ridge
retrogrades...allowing a weak shortwave trough to drop into Utah on
Sunday. This trough is expected to be accompanied by very little
moisture...with no precipitation and little additional cloud cover
expected. Temperatures do look to cool 2-3 degrees at 700mb...but
otherwise this trough will quickly pass without much noticeable
change in the weather.
Long term (after 12z monday)...northward ridge amplification along
the western coastal states will drive yet another warming trend
across the eastern Great Basin in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. 700 mb temperatures at
kslc prognosticated by both GFS/European model (ecmwf) to climb modestly from -5 c to +1 c
during that period...and coupled with increasing southwesterly flow
aloft Wednesday...expecting temperatures to run 5 to 10 and trending 10 to 15
degrees above normal most all areas early/middle week.
Global models continue to have difficulty resolving strength of the
southern branch jet across the eastern Pacific...and evolution of
the closed low to its north middle/late next week. 00z runs indicating
a weaker coastal impingement of the near zonal jet...with bulk of
remnant trough energy tracking north. Though the ridge does still
flatten due to some influence of said jet...and modest
cooling/moistening remains on tap locally...chances of a trough of
any significance locally have trended lower over the last few days.
Retained a slight cooling trend in grids but did trend the already
meager probability of precipitation even lower Wednesday evening on through day 7.
Aviation...operational weather concerns at the kslc terminal will
remain minimal through the taf period. Light southeast winds are
expected to switch to a light northwest between 18-20z per norm. VFR
conditions under mostly clear skies will be retained.
For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)