Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
956 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014
Synopsis...high pressure aloft centered near The Four Corners
region will keep deep moisture over the area through Thursday. A
drying trend from the west will follow beginning late Friday and
into the weekend.
Discussion...the moisture surge has made it all the way into
northern Utah today...with much more activity there than in the past
few days. Although the bulk of the storms remained south of I-
80...many of the storms produce measurable rain. Meanwhile...locally
heavy rain was seen across portions of central and southern Utah.
A general downward trend in showers was evident over the last few
hours...with the trend continuing through the night. However...a few
showers are expected to linger overnight...mainly across northern
Utah. Although difficult to pinpoint any kind of disturbances on
satellite at this time...models do show a weak feature rotating into
northern Utah late tonight...which is the basis for the higher probability of precipitation
still in the forecast there for the overnight hours.
Otherwise...elevated winds are seen across much of northern Utah and
should continue for a few hours...due to a combination of outflow
boundaries and mesohighs from the showers.
Ample moisture will remain across the entire forecast area
tomorrow...with precipitable water over an inch in many areas. Expect good coverage
of showers/thunderstorms throughout the area tomorrow...with locally
heavy rain. Drier air will begin to spread into the area from the
southwest on Friday...but in general expect the moisture to linger a
bit longer than models suggest. Therefore...do not expect
significant drying until Saturday...and even then there will be a
few showers across the mountains and east.
Updated the forecast mainly to adjust sky/pop for tonight and to
increase wind speeds in a few spots.
Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at the slc terminal
throughout the evening. Southerly winds should prevail but nearby
showers and thunderstorms will produce periods of gusty and/or
erratic winds through late this evening. Showers will continue to
fill in through midnight...with an occasional shower after midnight.
There is a 10 percent chance of a thunderstorm directly impacting
Fire weather...deep moisture has moved across the region and this
will result in the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across all of Utah again tomorrow. Wetting rains are expected with
many of the showers and thunderstorms. A drying trend over southwest
Utah will occur late Friday...moving into the western two thirds of
the state Saturday as high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
Winds will remain light and terrain driven during this time...so
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.
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