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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
845 PM MDT Friday Apr 18 2014
Synopsis...a weak system will remain across the region through
the weekend. A stronger storm will impact the area during the
middle of next week.
Discussion...a low amplitude short wave trough is moving out of The
Rockies and into the northern plains this evening while a weak closed low
over Southern California tracks slowly east. The northern branch trough sent a shallow
cold front into northern Utah that is stalled near a Delta to price line
this evening. Narrow bands of rain developed north of this front
today but have pretty much dissipated. Some isolated weak
convection spread into the northwestern deserts from eastern Nevada late in the
day and a few of these showers persist this evening but do not expect
them to last past midnight.
The closed low has spread convective showers into southern Utah but it is
likely that not much rain is reaching the ground due to dry low
levels. Expect these showers to increase overnight as additional
moisture and lift spreads into southern Utah ahead of the low and they
should start to reach the surface as the low levels moisten up
These should exit the County Warning Area tomorrow morning but expect scattered
convection to fire during the afternoon...mainly over higher terrain.
The flow aloft is very weak so dont expect these showers to move
too far from where they form before dissipating. Another round of
diurnal convection is expected sun but ridging will be moving into
the area during the day and this will work against the convection
keeping it more isolated.
The ridge axis shifts east Monday and the airmass warms strongly
under an increasing southwesterly flow. This flow becomes strong Tuesday with
a good chance of warning level southerly winds ahead of a strong
cold front. Equally strong winds are also possible behind this
front across the Salt Flats and into the Wasatch front during the
Updated forecasts earlier to adjust probability of precipitation and sky a bit but made no
major changes. No additional updates planned.
Aviation...northerly winds will continue at the slc terminal
through around around 05z then become light southerly or light and
variable. There is a 30 percent chance that winds remain
light northerly through 08-09z. VFR conditions will prevail with
ceilings remaining above 7000 feet.
For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)