Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
957 am MDT sun Aug 2 2015
Synopsis...a weak weather system will slowly cross the region
from south to north today through tonight. A drier southwesterly
flow will follow through midweek.
Discussion...the wave developing over southern Nevada is
weakening the ridge over the Great Basin and allowing a more
southerly flow to develop over the forecast area. This is acting
to spread the deep moisture over southern Utah northward...with
satellite derived precipitable waters indicating values around 1.0 inch already
well into central Utah. The moisture will reach the Utah/Idaho border
by late this evening. A broad area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms has already developed over southern Utah and the
combination of the moisture spread and daytime heating will allow
coverage to increase at least over the southern three-quarters of
Utah through the afternoon.
After moving approximately along the Utah/Nevada border today...the
weather disturbance will cut across northern Utah tonight into
Monday...increasing instability in that part of the forecast area
as a drier and more stable airmass starts to move into southern
Utah. Thus...overall threat of convection diminishes a bit and
shifts northward tomorrow before the threat ends Monday night as
the trough exits the area...allowing weak ridging to develop for
No updates expected to the forecast this morning.
Aviation...light southerly winds at the slc terminal will shift to
the northwest between 18-19z with a 20 percent chance the shift
occurs by 17z. Any threat of showers will hold off until about 06z.
Fire weather...the weather disturbance over southern Nevada will
track northward over eastern Nevada and western Utah today before
moving across northern Utah tonight and tomorrow. Despite
significant cloudiness...a broad area of showers and thunderstorms
has developed over southern Utah and expect coverage to increase
over the southern three-quarters of the state through the
afternoon with wetting rains possible. The most intense
thunderstorms are expected to be along the leading edge of the
moisture/cloud shield as it continues northward today. As the
shortwave tracks into northern Utah...drier air will move into
southern Utah Sunday night/Monday morning. Southwest winds will
increase some over western valleys Tuesday but be the strongest on
Wednesday with gusts over 30 miles per hour possible.
For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)