Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1046 am MDT sun Oct 4 2015
Synopsis...moisture will increase across the area from the south
today through Monday as the next storm system approaches the
area. This storm will mainly impact the southern and central
portions of the state through Tuesday. A warmer and drier airmass
will return for the second half of the week.
Discussion...the upper low along the California coast this morning
continues to drift southeastward with a southerly flow over our County Warning Area. The
airmass in place is fairly moist and weak waves moving north will
set off convection. One small band has already formed over southwestern Utah
and is lifting out of Washington Colorado while another area of weak
showers is lifting through northestern Utah into southwestern Wyoming.
Expect showers to become a little more numerous this afternoon as
moisture feeds into the County Warning Area from the south at low levels and
daytime heating helps destabilize the airmass.
Models continue to show an increasing trend in the shower coverage
through tomorrow over most of the County Warning Area with the exception of the
north. Expect precipitation to become fairly widespread Tuesday across the
south as the upper low tracks across northern Arizona.
The threat of heavy precipitation for southern Utah is not all that great but
training cells and increasing precipitation coverage could result in
water at least running in most drainages by late Tuesday.
Updated earlier to add probability of precipitation to more of the County Warning Area for today but left
coverage in the isolated category in most areas. No additional
Aviation...light and variable surface winds are expected to
become prevailing northerly at the kslc terminal by 18z and stay
northwest for the afternoon hours. Passing showers could bring
brief gusty erratic winds to the airfield at times through 03z.
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For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)