Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1003 PM MDT sun Sep 14 2014
Synopsis...high pressure across the Great Basin will strengthen
over the region through Tuesday. Moisture will start to spread
into southern Utah Wednesday...then continue north across the
entire area by Thursday.
Discussion...a middle level ridge remains centered over the eastern
Great Basin this evening with a warm airmass in place across the County Warning Area.
A limited amount of moisture continues to work through the ridge
along with several weak short waves. These have generated a little
high based shallow convection mostly across the north and continue
to do so over northwestern Utah at this time. Dont see much if any threat
of rain from this and even the wind threat appears low.
The 18z GFS had a new solution on the evolution of the tropical
moisture poised to lift into the County Warning Area and the track of the remains
of Odile. It was faster moving the California closed low inland which does
not allow for much of a window for the moisture to move into the
County Warning Area and takes the old core of Odile off to the northeast well to
our south. This solution significantly lowers the heavy rain
threat for our County Warning Area but it is the first run that is showing this so
would not put too much Faith in these ideas yet.
What it does however is lower the overall confidence on how this
rain event will play out and how much of any heavy rain falls.
For now do not plan on making any changes to the current forecast.
Aviation...southeasterly winds will prevail at the slc terminal
into Monday morning. There is a 10 percent chance that passing
high based showers could bring brief gusty erratic winds to the
airfield between 06-08z.
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http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)