Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1117 am MDT Sat Apr 19 2014
Synopsis...a weak storm system will move slowly across the
region through the weekend. A significant warming trend is then
expected for the early portion of the week ahead of a stronger
storm which will impact the area by midweek.
Discussion...upper level low moving slowly across western Arizona this
morning. With closed low to the south...middle level deformation
zone stretches from southwest Utah to southwest Wyoming. This
deformation axis will drift east through the day. Relatively moist
airmass in place with precipitable water values across the state
in excess of .50". NAM and GFS both indicate weak surface-based
cape this afternoon. With forcing associated with deformation zone
and moist airmass in place...anticipate scattered valley showers
and numerous mountain showers this afternoon along and east of the
deformation axis. Additionally...expect showers and isolated
storms to develop over the higher terrain in eastern Nevada and
drift into the west central and southwest portions of the state
this afternoon and evening.
With this update...lowered valley probability of precipitation in east central Utah and
the Uinta Basin as it appears that convection will be scattered in
coverage over valley locations. Also...trimmed probability of precipitation a bit in
northwest Utah given its location in larger scale region of
subsidence northwest of the deformation axis. Also lowered
afternoon maximum temperatures a but in eastern zones given the
extensive cloud cover over that area.
Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at the slc terminal
throughout the day with mostly cloudy skies. Light northwest winds
are expected to shift to the southeast between 03z and 04z. There is
a 20 percent chance that showers in the vicinity of the terminal
will result in periods of gusty and/or erratic winds this afternoon.
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