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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
527 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

/12z tafs/

A weak cold front will move through kabi towards noon, shifting
winds to the northwest to north at 10 kts. The front will slowly
move south to ksjt and kbbd late afternoon. Southwest winds of 10
kts or less will prevail ahead of the front. VFR next 24 hours.


Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016/

Short term...
(today and tonight)

A weak cold front will move south across the Big Country during
the morning hours, reaching the I-20 corridor around noon, and a
San Angelo to Brownwood line late afternoon. Winds will shift
north at 5 to 10 mph. The strongest cold air advection will be
mainly limited to areas along and north of the I-20 corridor,
where highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected. In the
Concho Valley, and areas south and east, the cold front will have
little effect with highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s!

Winds will become light tonight as the weak front dissipates.
Good radiational cooling conditions will be in place: with light
winds, clear skies and a dry atmosphere. Lows tonight will range
from 35 to 40 degrees.


Long term...
(friday through next wednesday)

Dry northwest flow with above normal temperatures will be the main
theme for the next several days. Surface high pressure with a
central pressure of ~1045mb will begin moving south/southeast
into the northern Central Plains and Great Lakes areas on Friday.
As high pressure spreads southward into the southern U. S.,
Very modest cold air advection from east/northeast winds will
affect the area from Friday into Saturday. Saturday should be
cooler of the two days. However, we will remain warmer than normal
through the weekend.

A shortwave moving across the rocky mtns. Saturday night into
Sunday will induce Lee troughing to our north and northwest,
causing breezy southerly winds, and increasing moisture Saturday
night. This shortwave quickly exits to the east on Sunday. A cold
front will stall near our northern County Warning Area border behind this trough.
However, another shortwave will follow quickly behind it, moving
into the Southern Plains Sunday night. A Pacific cold front will
quickly follow behind this trough moving through on Monday. Winds
could be a bit breezy along and behind this front on Monday. Highs
will be able to warm into the 60s to near 70 before colder air
moves in. Winds quickly turn back around to the south/southwest,
allowing for a quick warm-up, and highs possibly back near 80
again on Tuesday and Wednesday.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 71 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 82 36 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 82 35 78 39 / 0 0 0 0


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...



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