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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
309 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Discussion...
kshv radar showing scattered thunderstorms across our extreme northern sections in
association with a weak cold front and upper level disturbance.
Elsewhere...disorganized diurnally-driven isolated to widely scattered
convection has been noted throughout the afternoon. This activity
should die out with the loss of daytime heating...but the
convection across southeast OK/SW Arkansas will likely continue off and on
through late Wednesday.

The upper ridge is forecast to begin building in over the southeastern
U.S. For the second half of the work week...as the stalled front
moves back northward away from our region. This will dry US out and will
also push our maximum temperatures into the upper 90s. Slight chances for
afternoon sea breeze convection may come in during the weekend
for our southern counties/parishes...but the ridge is forecast to drift
ovhd and continue to strengthen as we move into next work
week...which will effectively squash any chances for afternoon
convection. Temperatures are also likely to be aided upwards towards the
century mark...especially as soil moisture continues to be
depleted. /12/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1201 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015/

Aviation...
introduced vcsh at the tyr/ggg/txk terminals this afternoon as
regional radar mosaic showing widely scattered convection starting
to pop. Otherwise...cloud bases will rise throughout the day due
to heating at the surface which will increase the wind speeds and
allow for mixing and thinning of clouds. The surrounding weather forecast office wind
speeds will range from 10 to 12 kts with gust of 20 knots possible
then around 6 PM the wind will begin to die down. The decoupling
will result in the winds slowing down. As the inversion forms the
boundary layer winds increase to 30 to 40 kts. This will allow for
the formation of IFR/MVFR ceilings near sunrise.

IFR/MVFR ceilings should climb and/or scatter out by middle to
late morning on Wednesday. Strong pressure gradient will remain in place
on Wednesday with gusts approaching 25kts across our NE Texas terminals.

21/13

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 76 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
mlu 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
deq 73 89 72 90 / 40 20 20 10
txk 76 92 74 92 / 20 10 10 10
eld 74 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
tyr 76 91 74 91 / 10 10 10 10
ggg 76 93 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
lfk 76 95 75 94 / 10 10 0 20

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

12

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