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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1133 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

mostly MVFR with isolated IFR conditions noted across the region this
morning will gradually improve from west to east throughout the
high pressure begins to build southward. Expect VFR conditions and only
some lingering high clouds by the end of the 18z taf period.
Otherwise...light northerly winds will continue through the overnight
hours...before increasing to around 10 kts out of the northwest after
sunrise Wednesday. /12/


Previous discussion... /issued 1037 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/

no update needed at the mandatory update forecast time.


Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/

reinforcing cold front has pushed south and east of our region
early this morning but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to fire along and ahead of the 850mb front. This feature
should continue to be the focus for scattered convection as we go
through the day with the boundary expected to stall near a lfk to
mlu line later this morning. Vigorous upper level trough across
the northern plains this morning will continue to move eastward
towards the Great Lakes today with energy spinning along the
southern flank of the disturbance moving our way across the
central/Southern Plains into the lower miss valley this evening.
This will help to dry the lower levels of the atmosphere out
across our northwest zones later today with this drying trend pushing
south and east by this evening. Cirrus should thin from northwest to southeast
overnight as well and all this to say we should see the sun return
to our region on Wednesday...a welcome sight for what has been a
very damp and dreary last 4-5 days.

With clearing skies tonight and mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies for the remainder of the week...we should see greater
temperature spreads from overnight lows to daytime highs compared
to the low spreads we have seen the last several days. With a
drier atmosphere in place this week towards the upcoming
weekend...will likely see near freezing temperatures at night
across portions of southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas with
overnight min temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 30s for the
remainder of our four state region.

Our next upper level trough will begin moving into the inter-
mountain west on Sat but believe this trough will become cutoff
near The Four Corners region of the country by late weekend. The
European model (ecmwf) continues to exhibit good run to run consistency with this
trough compared to the GFS which is much more open and
progressive. Therefore...have followed the lead of the European model (ecmwf)/CMC
which will support at the very least...a chance of showers for
late weekend into early next week. This still does not appear to
be a big rain maker for US but we will continue to monitor the
progression of this next disturbance to see just how much
returning moisture is available. /13/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 56 41 59 36 / 20 10 10 10
mlu 56 43 61 37 / 50 20 10 10
deq 56 30 55 29 / 10 0 10 10
txk 54 36 56 35 / 10 0 10 10
eld 55 36 58 33 / 10 10 10 10
tyr 55 39 59 36 / 10 0 10 10
ggg 55 38 59 35 / 10 0 10 10
lfk 57 43 62 36 / 30 20 10 10


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...



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