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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
635 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Aviation...
for the 13/00z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail with dry and
cooler air mass advancing in the wake of cold frontal passage.
Sky clear conditions will be seen for much of the period but passing
middle and high clouds will be possible in the northwest flow pattern aloft.
Light north/NE winds will prevail in the Post-frontal air mass with
speeds less than 10 kts. /19/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 305 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016/

Discussion...
cold front has pushed S of the region this afternoon...and most
areas are seeing a nice warm up despite the cooler airmass in
place. Secondary push of cold air is just north of our region...and
will be diving southward this evening/tonight in the northwest flow aloft. This
will spell much cooler temperatures for Saturday...near or even below middle
February normals. This airmass will not last long...however...as
the upper trough departs off of the East Coast ahead of a developing
shortwave moving into the plains Sunday. Southerly surface flow will resume
quickly as the surface high moves eastward...and low pressure develops
across Texas...bringing ll moisture and warmer air to our region. As
a result...some very light showers will be possible early Sunday
morning as the upper trough approaches. There has been some
discussion over the last couple of model runs as to whether temperatures
would be able to warm above freezing before the onset of precipitation
Sunday morning...but gui has come in warmer this run...and very
few sites look to even get down to the mark. Have continued to
keep only liquid precipitation in the forecast...as the possibility of even a
brief hour or so of freezing rain seems very remote...even for our far north
counties.

Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday...as the trough and
ll moisture continue to deepen. Have increased probability of precipitation into the
likely category after a few days of a more conservative approach.
Still a few differences in model solutions exist...particularly
with the much faster NAM solution. However...the GFS/Euro seem to
be coming into better agreement. Instability continues to appear
very limited for our region...and thus only isolated thunder is
expected with little potential for anything severe.

Despite the passage of a cold front Monday...temperatures are expected to
warm through the work week...as sunshine and dry air abound in northwest
flow aloft. Temperatures will warm to well above normal by the end of the
work week...as the upper ridge begins to drift eastward over the Gulf
states...and the surface ridge moves out to the East Coast. /12/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 40 53 39 59 / 0 0 0 20
mlu 37 48 33 59 / 0 0 0 20
deq 35 49 35 51 / 0 0 0 30
txk 36 49 36 54 / 0 0 0 30
eld 35 47 32 55 / 0 0 0 20
tyr 42 59 47 64 / 0 0 0 20
ggg 42 55 43 62 / 0 0 0 20
lfk 47 59 46 66 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

19

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