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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
354 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Discussion...
the center of an enlongated upper ridge remains over West Texas
resulting in northerly flow aloft over the County Warning Area. Cold front that moved
through the area over the last 24 hours is just off the Gulf Coast.
Dry surface high has quickly moved south into the region in the wake
of the front. This surface high will keep rain chances low for Sunday
and Monday. Daytime temperatures will continue to slowly warm into
the upper 90s and approaching 100 degrees f but the dry airmass
should keep heat index values near the air temperature and just
below heat advisory criteria.

By Tuesday...the surface high will move off to the east while the
upper ridge continues to retrograde farther west. The increased
northwesterly flow should bring a weak shortwave trough into the region.
Ascent from the passing trough and moisture off the Gulf may be
sufficient for widely scattered convection across southeast OK/southern Arkansas/northern
la on Tuesday and Wednesday. However...the greatest ascent and a
weak surface front will be far to the north of the area and so will
the best rain chances. In short...widespread wetting rains are
not expected.

Without any sigificant rainfall...there will be little to combat
the heat other than cloud cover. After a brief break during the
middle of the week...daytime temperatures will gradually warm back
towards the century mark during the latter half of the week. Heat
index values will likely begin approaching advisory criteria once
again as persistent low level southerly flow allows Gulf moisture to
surge northward and humidity levels to climb.

Medium range models suggest another upper trough/cold front may
approach the area next weekend and possibly bringing some higher
rain chances to much of the area. /09/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 72 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
mlu 69 97 70 99 / 0 0 0 10
deq 64 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
txk 69 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 10
eld 66 96 68 99 / 0 0 0 10
tyr 72 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
ggg 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 10
lfk 67 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

09

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