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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1119 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Discussion...
our cold front continues to make steady progress southeast late this
morning...having reached an adf...to just east of a txk...to
Blanchard/Greenwood la...to och and just west of a lfk line as of 17z.
The greatest extent of convection is racing NE and should be exiting
our SW Arkansas counties here shortly...but mosaic radar imagery indicated
additional scattered convection developing within the warm sector over southeast
Texas/S la as well as the frontal surface itself...which should lift north-northeast into
north central la through the afternoon. In addition...the short term forecasts
are in agreement with a weak surface low/wave developing along the frontal
zone over southeast Texas...racing NE into north central la this afternoon...thus
enhancing frontal convergence and convection coverage. Despite
dewpoints climbing into the Lower/Middle 60s in the warm sector this
afternoon...surface and elevated instability will be weak...thus keeping
more organized/stronger convection at Bay. However...isolated strong
storms containing small hail and locally gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall can/T be ruled out...although this threat will diminish from
northwest to southeast this afternoon/evening as the front continues sewrd...exiting
the County Warning Area around/shortly after 06z.

For the zone update...have trimmed back probability of precipitation this morning...but
maintained categorical probability of precipitation over north la...as well as likely probability of precipitation
farther west. The short term forecasts are in agreement with increased
overrunning/isentropic lift along the 295-300k surfaces this afternoon
behind the surface front over NE Texas/southeast OK but near the 850mb front...which
should gradually weaken this evening. Have also adjusted maximum temperatures
today...as these have been reached over the western sections of East Texas/southeast
OK...and should continue to fall through the afternoon.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 63 43 50 34 56 / 80 80 50 10 10
mlu 67 46 49 37 53 / 90 90 70 20 10
deq 48 36 48 28 53 / 70 40 20 10 10
txk 57 38 46 33 51 / 70 50 30 10 10
eld 60 42 47 32 53 / 90 80 50 10 10
tyr 46 36 47 33 57 / 60 40 20 10 10
ggg 49 38 48 31 56 / 70 50 40 10 10
lfk 71 43 50 34 58 / 80 60 50 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

15

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