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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
617 am CST Friday Dec 26 2014

Aviation...
for the taf forecast ending at 27/12z...expect VFR ceilings around 4
kft to begin the period. Ceilings will gradually become MVFR during
the day. This evening...ceilings will lower to IFR most terminals
with occasional light rain and fog lowering visibilities to MVFR with
some shorter periods of IFR. Isolated embedded thunderstorms are also
expected. Surface wind south to southeast between 8 and 12 kts.
/14/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 515 am CST Friday Dec 26 2014/

Discussion...
low to middle clouds continue to increase with above average readings
this morning. We will see showers begin to work into the area
during today with amounts light the most part. The big upper trough is
pushing eastward across Mexico the southwest U.S. With a closed
low and tropical connection of rich Pacific moisture.

The coverage of shower activity will really pickup late today and
overnight...lingering into all of Saturday with increasing embedded
elevated thunderstorms. Rumbles of thunder aloft for the most
part...but this will bear watching during the daylight hours. The
major threat for any cloud to ground lightning will likely be
greatest along and ahead of the cold front as the winds shift to
northwest during middle to late Saturday then eastward overnight and
into Sunday across the remainder of the area. So it looks like a
soggy situation for Saturday and much improved by Sunday with a
1024mb Pacific high pressure system. Wpc is about a half inch
north to maybe near two inches over our southeast by the end of
the event. We are close to mav and mex forecast numbers for the
week.

A secondary surge of Arctic air invades during the middle of next
week with a 1050 high and will make for a chilly New Year. Jury is
still out as far as timing and type of any weather.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 61 57 66 44 53 / 30 70 70 60 30
mlu 60 55 67 47 53 / 20 60 80 70 50
deq 57 51 54 34 49 / 30 70 70 20 10
txk 57 53 57 39 51 / 30 70 70 50 20
eld 59 54 63 44 50 / 20 60 80 60 40
tyr 62 56 57 36 52 / 30 70 70 30 10
ggg 61 58 59 39 52 / 30 70 70 50 20
lfk 66 61 67 43 53 / 30 70 70 50 30

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

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