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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1139 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Aviation...
upper level trough axis has shifted east of the region overnight
but a left over shear axis remains in the vicinity of the I-20
corridor of north la. Deep moisture remains available in the wake
of this trough and with the aid of late morning heating...
already starting to see widely scattered showers south of the I-20
corridor across east central Texas into west central la.

For the 18z taf package...will keep thunderstorms in the vicinity going for all but the tyr
terminal through the afternoon into the early evening. Convection
should die down after sunset this evening as the upper level
trough and shear axis continues to move east of the region.

Terminals in and around convection this afternoon can expect gusty
winds and brief limited visibilities.

Expecting a return to IFR ceilings a couple hours either side of
sunrise Monday morning with the cumulus field climbing and scattering
out by 16z Monday.

13



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1109 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015/

Discussion...
one upper trough is lifting northeastward into the Ohio River valley but
another shortwave trough currently over southeast Nebraska will dive
southward towards the arklatex through tonight. Ascent from this
shortwave should lead to more scattered convection this afternoon and
this evening mainly over the northeast half of the County Warning Area. Have made
some minor tweaks to pop grids for the rest of today but slight
chance to chance probability of precipitation were maintained.

Updated text products have been sent.

/09/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 90 73 93 76 / 30 20 10 10
mlu 86 71 92 74 / 50 20 10 10
deq 87 70 90 74 / 30 20 10 20
txk 88 73 91 75 / 30 20 10 20
eld 87 70 92 74 / 40 20 10 10
tyr 91 73 92 76 / 20 10 10 10
ggg 91 73 92 76 / 30 10 10 10
lfk 92 74 93 76 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

09/13

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