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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1033 am CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

short wave near coast creating convection over Gulf...with showers
moving northeastward onshore...but weakening as they move into more stable seen on 12z lch radiosonde observation. Added isolated showers to forecast for
this southern portions to account for showers trying to
work their way from the south. Temperatures have been steadily
climbing despite thickening middle level for now...will still
expect afternoon temperatures to reach upper 60s to around 70./Vii/


Previous discussion... /issued 418 am CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014/

Discussion... 7 days will remain fairly active with persistent
rain chances beyond next weekend...however severe weather threat
should be low for much of the next week. Temperatures will continue to
gradually warm despite the repeated rain chances.

Today should be rain free until after 00z. Two shortwave currently over southeast Colorado and another just southeast of The Big
Bend of Texas will move eastward over the next 24 hours. The southern wave should
move well S of the County Warning Area and any precipitation should be confined more
towards the Gulf Coast. Latest run of the hrrr breaks out some
quantitative precipitation forecast across deep East Texas later this morning but none of the other
models are really picking up on this. Latest radar loops indicate
convection across central Texas should stay S of the County Warning Area. Thus...will
keep the daytime hours dry. Better chances for showers will likely be
this evening and tonight as the Colorado shortwave dives southeast towards the
County Warning Area and eventually merges with the Texas trough over the lower MS
valley. Weak cold front will also move across the area tonight
which should provide a focus for a few scattered showers. Instability
looks to be quite meager so will not mention thunder at this time.

Friday and Saturday should be dry as an upper ridge builds over
the area. Flow aloft will remain progressive though and the ridge
should move east by Saturday evening allowing the flow to transition
to southwesterly. Deep layer moisture will increase while a series of weak
upper waves move across the Southern Plains. Rain chances will increase
beginning early Sunday as the first of these weak impulses
approaches and convection moves into the County Warning Area from the west. Best
chances for showers/thunderstorms will likely be late Sunday and into early
Monday morning as an upper trough arrives. Cannot rule out an
isolated severe storm or two but instability should be rather low
due to the loss of daytime heating Sunday night/Monday morning.
Chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms will persist into early next week as
the upper trough and cold front will be very slow to progress.
GFS/European model (ecmwf) have been very consistent in keeping rain in the area
until the front finally clears the County Warning Area so have extended slight
chance probability of precipitation into early Tuesday morning.

After a brief pattern looks to continue as a much
stronger upper trough moves across the country late next week but
it appears the trough will be farther north across the central/northern
plains. Still...a cold front at the surface should still provide at
least a slight chance for convection. /09/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 70 53 76 57 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
mlu 71 54 74 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
deq 70 46 77 52 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
txk 70 51 75 55 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
eld 70 50 75 54 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
tyr 70 54 75 57 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
ggg 70 53 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
lfk 71 54 78 57 80 / 10 20 10 10 10


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...