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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
432 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Discussion...
upper trough continuing to snake its way ewrd across the plains this
morning with a few light showers noted on kshv radar along and north
of the I-30 corridor. More intense convection is noted near the
base of the trough over north central Texas and expect gradual ewrd movement
of this convection into our region later today and tonight as the
trough axis shifts into the middle/lower MS valley. Probability of precipitation have been kept
in the chance category through tonight...but increase further on
Saturday as rich tropical moisture surges nwrd in response to a
developing area of low pressure in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The
latest NAM/European model (ecmwf) model guidance suggests the axis of heaviest
rainfall setting up from deep East Texas to areas along and east of the
Sabine River in north la...so will continue to side with these similar
solutions compared to the drier GFS. Temperatures will respond as
expected with the increasing cloud cover and higher rain chances
with highs on Saturday only expected to reach into the 80s area
wide...a nice change from the middle and upper 90s earlier this week.

Rain chances will hang around through Sunday with the trough slowly
departing to the east by Sunday evening. This will allow for dry
weather to return for the Labor Day Holiday on Monday but this
also means a return to low and middle 90 degree temperatures for
next week as the upper ridge begins to expand back wwrd along the
entire Gulf Coast states. So aside from any diurnally driven/sea
breeze convection during the afternoon hours...rain chances will
be slim through the remainder of the extended period with temperatures
continuing to run above seasonal norms for early September. /19/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 94 74 86 73 91 / 40 30 70 40 40
mlu 93 73 85 71 89 / 30 40 70 50 40
deq 91 71 87 70 89 / 40 40 40 30 20
txk 92 72 86 71 88 / 40 40 60 30 30
eld 93 72 85 71 88 / 30 40 70 50 40
tyr 92 75 89 74 91 / 40 30 40 20 20
ggg 93 74 88 73 90 / 40 30 60 30 30
lfk 93 75 86 74 91 / 40 30 70 30 40

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

19

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