Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1012 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...
still a muggy morning for our western and southwest zones but much
drier conditions noted to our north and east behind a cold front
which continues to make good progress backdooring its way into the
region. Frontal boundary showed up well on kshv 88d this morning
and appears to be in the vicinity of a gvt...esf line but is
slowing its southwest progress somewhat. Much drier conditions
noted across our northern and eastern zones behind this boundary
but ahead of the front...widely scattered convection is starting
to pop along and west of a trl...position line where much better precipitable waters
exist along with better instability and low cin. For the
update...have cut probability of precipitation behind the cold front but kept them in
place across our western and southwest zones through tonight.
Left maximum temperatures unchanged for the afternoon but did bump up winds
behind the cold front and lowered Post frontal dewpoints to match
up with current trends. Also adjusted sky grids even through we
are seeing a lot of cirrus blowoff from the mesoscale convective system ongoing across
deep S Texas.
Update out shortly...13.
&&
Aviation...
low stratus is confined primarily to the East Texas terminal locations
this morning...with some spotty low end VFR ceilings across portions of
north la as well. These ceilings will continue to lift this morning and
scatter out by 16z-17z with high thin cirrus increasing from west to
east across our region this afternoon. Back door cold front will
continue to shift farther SW into East Texas with surface winds from the east/NE
between 6-12 kts with higher gusts from 15-18 kts late this morning
through the afternoon hours. With this front in the area...some
isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop this afternoon mainly
over East Texas and may require at least thunderstorms in the vicinity wording early in this taf
period and will handle any additional convection with amendments.
Any convection that does develop should mostly diminish with loss of
heating this evening except over East Texas where the front will still be
a factor. In addition...expect low ceilings and visibility restrictions to
return across the East Texas terminal locations as well through 25/15z.
/19/
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 85 65 87 68 86 / 10 10 20 20 20
mlu 84 58 86 63 87 / 10 0 10 10 20
deq 80 58 83 64 86 / 10 0 20 20 20
txk 81 60 84 66 86 / 10 0 20 20 20
eld 81 56 85 62 85 / 10 0 10 10 20
tyr 86 67 87 68 87 / 20 20 20 20 20
ggg 86 67 87 68 86 / 20 20 20 20 20
lfk 89 68 89 68 88 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
13/19
