Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
658 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Aviation...
for the 31/00z tafs...VFR conditions to start this taf period but
scattered convection may cause brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibilities at
our terminals through this evening. With loss of heating...expect
a gradual downward trend in showers and thunderstorms into the overnight
hours as a cold front continues to track slowly across the area.
Lower ceilings will lag behind the front into Sunday morning...MVFR
and possibly IFR conditions through middle to late morning along with
some patchy fog. Light winds becoming more north/northwest with frontal passage with
speeds generally 5 kts or less tonight...increasing slightly to
near 10 kts on Sunday. /19/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 205 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015/

Discussion...
remnant cold pool boundary and convection are currently exiting
our extreme eastern parishes this afternoon. The boundary has worked
over our atmosphere pretty good today but remnant mesoscale convective vortex continues to
spin across NE Texas at this time. Starting to see some airmass recovery
across central Texas and even starting to see some new development
along and north of the I-20 corridor in north central Texas closer to
the mesoscale convective vortex itself. With low cinh in place not to mention the
moisture... have decided to leave the flash Flood Advisory in place through 7 PM
this evening. The hrrr does develop additional scattered
thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the filling mesoscale convective vortex this
evening and tries to generate additional activity south of the
I-20 corridor and this seems plausible as this area was mostly
missed by previous daytime convection. Did not expand the watch to
include deep East Texas or the rest of northern Louisiana as areas
along and south of the I-20 corridor have missed out on rainfall
over the last 3 days...at least the southern half of NE Texas has and
for that reason...they should be able to take a good inch to two
inch rain if they do see that this evening. Cold front as of 18z
was analyzed from northwest Arkansas into southern OK/north central Texas and this
feature should make good progress into SW Arkansas/northwest la and NE Texas
overnight.

Main upper trough axis should extend from the Great Lakes region
into the Southern Plains late tonight...with this feature moving
slowly into eastern OK/western Arkansas by midday sun and into the tenn
valley by midday Monday. This trough axis will help to focus additional
shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday but coverage should be
mostly scattered in nature and more focused along and to the east
of the remnant cold front which may stall late tonight/sun across our
southeast zones. Kept probability of precipitation highest in our southeast zones for sun through
Monday. The trough appears to become cutoff from the westerlies on
Tuesday east of our region and that should keep the any precipitation
east of our region as well. Extended portion of the forecast
beyond Tuesday is a dry one with below normal temperatures early
in the week...gradually warming to near seasonal norms by middle to
late work week.

Thanks for the coordination today surrounding offices...prelims
to follow...13.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 63 81 63 81 / 40 20 10 20
mlu 66 82 63 80 / 50 40 30 30
deq 55 78 59 78 / 40 20 10 20
txk 60 79 61 79 / 40 20 10 20
eld 62 80 60 79 / 40 30 20 30
tyr 62 80 61 81 / 40 20 10 20
ggg 62 80 62 81 / 40 20 10 20
lfk 65 82 63 83 / 50 30 20 20

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for arz050-051-
059>061-070-071.

La...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for laz001-002.

OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz077.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for txz096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

19

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations