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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
432 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

the cold front has pushed offshore the southeast Texas/southern la coasts this
morning...with the 11-3.9u satellite imagery indicating a
considerable Post-frontal stratocu field shifting SW into NE Texas/SW
Arkansas/northern la. This cloud shield should gradually scatter out by late
morning/early afternoon...especially as the Post-frontal dry air
deepens with time. Satellite imagery also indicates cirrus ceilings
associated with the apex of a second upper shortwave trough behind
the first trough which has shifted into northern Alabama this morning. These
cirrus ceilings should affect all but the SW sections of East Texas later
this morning/early afternoon...before diminishing from northwest to southeast
with the passage of the trough. This cloud cover...and weak cold
advection...will result in maximum temperatures a little closer to normal
today...although still above normal over deep East Texas where the Post-
frontal air mass will not be quite as deep. However...much drier
air will result in pleasant temperatures tonight as surface ridging builds S
overhead...with the coolest readings found over SW Arkansas/north central la.
This will be short-lived though as a srly boundary layer flow
returns...and rising thicknesses build back east towards the MS

The forecasts remain in agreement in sustaining a dry north-northwest flow aloft
throughout much of the extended /next week/...with the next
progressive upper trough translating east across the northern plains
Sunday afternoon/evening into the Great Lakes region/middle MS valley
Monday. While the trough itself should remain NE of the will drive another cool front southward into southeast OK/SW Arkansas
Monday afternoon...nearing the I-20 corridor of East Texas/north la late in
the day. Low level winds will veer more SW in advance of the
front...with a zone of compressional warming again developing just
S of the front /as was the case Friday with our most recent frontal passage
Friday evening/early this morning/...resulting in maximum temperatures
climbing to near record territory once again in the lower 90s. Low
level moisture return ahead of the front will again be quite
limited...although isolated convection will be possible near the
front Monday afternoon over SW Arkansas/northern la where weak frontal
convergence interacts with available elevated moisture and strong
heating/increasing middle-level lapse rates. Have lowered probability of precipitation Monday
night as any convection that develops should quickly weaken with
boundary layer stabilization...with another reinforcement of slightly
cooler but drier air southward in wake of the frontal passage.

Any cooldown with this second front should again be brief...with
upper ridging becoming re-established over the desert SW by
midweek ahead of the eastern Pacific closed low. This ridge remains
prognosticated to gradually build east into portions of the Southern Plains
through late week...maintaining dry conditions and above normal
temperatures through at least next weekend. This ridge may begin to break
down by the end of the extended...although any low level return
flow will be weak/slow to moisten with no definitive shortwave
activity noted in the medium range forecasts for any wetting rainfall
through at least the beginning of the third week of October.
Thus...with the above normal temperatures/low relative humidity/S/dry conditions
persisting...drought conditions will continue to worsen while the
fire danger remains elevated.

Prelims to follow below...



Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 82 53 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
mlu 80 49 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
deq 79 49 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
txk 79 51 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
eld 77 47 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
tyr 83 57 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
ggg 83 54 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
lfk 86 54 89 65 / 0 0 0 0


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...



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