Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
621 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

for the 10/00z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail through this taf
period with deep northwest flow continuing for the moment. Gusty surface
winds have begun to drop off rapidly after sunset and will further
diminish to light/variable as we approach daybreak with the center of surface
high pressure shifting east into the four state region late tonight
through early Wednesday. Returning southerly flow will commence by
late morning into the afternoon with speeds ranging from 5-10 kts.
Aside from passing clear conditions will dominate through
the period. /19/


Previous discussion... /issued 241 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/

gusty west-northwesterly winds continue across the region this
the surface pressure gradient remains quite sharp. This will likely
continue through the next couple of hours. Have toyed with the
idea of extending the lake Wind Advisory through 6 PM...but have
decided against doing so. Latest guidance suggests that winds may
meet advisory criteria for a short time after 4 PM...but these
occurrences should quickly become isolated as we approach the 5 PM

Subsidence continues to characterize the weather pattern for our we remain under northwest flow aloft on the back side of an
amplified upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S.. this general pattern is
forecast to continue for the next several days. Expect another day of
dry air and abundant sunshine for Wednesday...with temperatures
necessarily warmer than today as a result.

Dry back-door cold front will slowly move through the region late
Thursday...and cooler air will filter into the region through
Saturday. This will gradually cool US down Friday and back to
near normal for most areas by Saturday.

Upper trough will finally move off the East Coast as another lines up
over the northern rockies and moves into the plains during Sunday.
Developing surface low pressure in response to the approaching upper
shortwave will draw friday's cold front back northward over central/North
Texas. This may allow for a few showers over our far western East Texas/southeast OK
counties Sunday as low level moisture increases...before the
shortwave dives southeastward into our region and brings another cold front
Monday. Models continue to show decent quantitative precipitation forecast with monday's
shortwave/cold front...despite the short time of moisture recovery
in advance of this system. Have continued the conservative
approach considering the day seven position...but this looks like
our best chance for widespread rainfall for the foreseeable
future. /12/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 33 60 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
mlu 31 54 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
deq 26 56 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
txk 30 57 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
eld 27 55 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
tyr 35 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
ggg 33 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
lfk 35 64 47 76 / 0 0 0 0


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations