Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
952 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Discussion...
have done a quick update this evening...mainly to remove the
mention of rain which was forecast for the southern zones.
The convection did lower temperatures in some areas to near forecast lows...
mainly across western Louisiana into adjacent deep East Texas.
Adjusted the hourly numbers for temperatures and dewpoints...and lowered
tonights mins a couple degrees in the Natchitoches area.
Otherwise...forecast on track with no other changes beyond tonight.
/14/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 804 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/

Aviation...
expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period...with some
tempo MVFR stratus/br possible around sunrise. Another round of
isolated to scattered sea breeze thunderstorms may affect klfk late in the
afternoon/early evening Thursday...but will not make mention in
the tafs this period. Otherwise...expect southerly winds 5-10 kts through
the period. /12/

Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/

Discussion...
sea breeze boundary progressing north across southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana to bring late afternoon and early evening
convection across deep East Texas and northwest Louisiana.
Overnight low temperatures to fall into the low 70s across the
Interstate 30 corridor and into the middle 70s south of Interstate
20.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms again possible on Thursday
mainly south of Interstate 20. However...coverage and duration to
be lower than what has occurred over the past few days as upper-
level ridge builds across the region from the east.

Upper-ridge to bring a gradual warming trend from Thursday through
the weekend. The main concern is whether afternoon relative
humidity values will allow for heat index values to reach heat
advisory criteria on any given day through the weekend. Latest trends
over the past several days indicate that heat index values have
remained below criteria due to sufficient afternoon mixing of
drier air from the middle-levels of the atmosphere. For this forecast
package...went ahead and held off on issuing an advisory for
Thursday based on temperature and dewpoint values not varying
significantly enough from the past few days to generate heat
index values that would warrant an advisory at this time.

Dry conditions to prevail through the weekend with high
temperatures forecast to climb into the middle 90s areawide. Could
see a break in the heat early next week as upper-level ridge shifts
northeast into the Ohio River valley and afternoon showers and
thunderstorms return to the region. /05/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 75 96 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
mlu 73 95 74 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
deq 71 93 71 95 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
txk 74 93 74 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
eld 72 95 73 96 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
tyr 76 94 75 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
ggg 75 94 74 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
lfk 76 96 76 97 74 / 10 20 20 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations