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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1211 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

expecting mostly VFR flight weather to begin the 18/18z taf period.
However...scattered showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma into
southwest Arkansas and adjacent northeast Texas will bring areas of
MVFR and briefly IFR conditions due to lower visibilities and ceilings through
at least 18/22z. Moderate to severe turbulence will accompany this
convection. Another area of convection in deep East Texas will also
bring lower flight conditions...which may continue until around
19/02z. Convection in other areas should remain mostly isolated in
coverage. After 19/03z...expect fairly widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities
to develop across deep east and spread north to the tyr and ggg areas
by 09z. These lower flight conditions will continue until 19/16z.


Previous discussion... /issued 1147 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/

late this morning a nearly stationary frontal boundary reached
northeast from east and northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma
and then east across southern Arkansas and then southeast across
parts of Mississippi. Aloft an upper level trough extended southwest
from north central Arkansas into southwest Arkansas and near the
Arkansas/Louisiana state line. Another lead short wave trough aloft
extended across southwest Mississippi and into southeast Louisiana
and the Gulf of Mexico. Weak ridging aloft extended north across
west and North Texas with another upper disturbance rounding the
northern periphery of this ridge and moving east toward East
Texas. All of these features along with available moisture over the
four state region was producing showers and thunderstorms over
northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...and southwest Arkansas with
other activity over deep East Texas and into lower parts of
northwest and north central Louisiana. Later during the day
the showers and thunderstorms will increase over parts of
northwest and north central Louisiana and south central Arkansas
with the disturbance aloft moving southeast toward the area.
Other activity will continue over east and northeast Texas and
into northwest Louisiana. Have adjusted the chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of today and extended into the night
tonight. Made some temperature adjustments for the afternoon given
the cloud cover expected and rain that will develop and expand
over the area. /06/

Previous discussion... /issued 500 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/

mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures with low to middle 70s for
most...there are a few upper 60s where rain fell overnight. The northwest
flow aloft has been active and remains so this morning with a new
crop in the plains moving toward our area with hopefully a timely
boundary if nothing else. A weak trough extends over New Brunswick/kn and Colorado
and is keeping the tropical connection bottled up from nm into Texas
and la per water vapor imagery. Our thinking remains with less
thunderstorm coverage likely into the coming days as ridging
expands over the plains ahead of the front. We are similar with
mav/mex reasonable and blended. The cold front for next week is
about the same on timing with little change from past


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 71 92 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
mlu 69 91 68 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
deq 67 89 67 90 68 / 30 0 10 10 30
txk 67 89 69 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 20
eld 68 88 68 90 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
tyr 70 90 70 91 71 / 20 10 10 20 20
ggg 68 90 68 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
lfk 69 90 70 92 70 / 30 20 10 20 10


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...


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