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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
458 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015


Starting out this taf cycle with mostly MVFR ceilings across the
terminal locations. An area of light to moderate showers currently
moving quickly across NE Texas into SW Arkansas with with most of this
activity remaining near or just north of the I-20 terminal

During the day...have vcsh mentioned across most locations with a
slow but steady improvement in ceiling heights. The cold front
which is currently across eastern Oklahoma into north central
Texas will continue to move towards our region...slowing down as
it does so. Expecting more in the way of possible convection with
the arrival of the frontal boundary and have thus prevailed this
weather type during the night across our NE Texas terminals with more
tempo thunderstorms and rain after midnight elsewhere.

Winds today will be from the southeast near 08-12kts with higher
gusts. Winds will begin to back around to S or south-southwest just ahead of
the front beginning this evening with a wind shift expected at the
tyr/ggg/txk terminal before the end of the taf period Saturday



Previous discussion... /issued 426 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015/

the well-advertised and much anticipated heavy rain event is now
underway. A cold front is located from central Texas...through the dfw
metroplex...into southeast near Fayetteville Arkansas. A broad area of
large scale ascent ahead of a broad upper trough over the Great
Basin has tapped into a deep plume of tropical Pacific moisture
from Hurricane Sandra. As a result...a broad area of precipitation has
develop across the Southern Plains. The front will slow as it moves
across the County Warning Area. However...most of the heavy rain is expected to be
stratiform and along the 850 mb front which will be slightly behind
the surface front. Vertical ascent is expected to increase today as a
surface low develops along the front and moves northeastward along the I-30
corridor. An additional source of enhanced lift should spread over
the area on Saturday and Sunday as the remnants of Hurricane
Sandra move northeastward towards the Southern Plains and the lower MS valley.

Storm total rainfall amounts are still expected to be between
three and five inches north of a line from ktyr to Prescott Arkansas.
A band of higher rainfall totals between six and eight inches is
now expected a bit farther south compared to previous forecast
packages...roughly along and north of the I-30 corridor. No
changes were made to the Flash Flood Watch. River
flooding...including at some locations along the Red River will
likely become a concern over the next several days.

Rainfall rates are expected to diminish early Sunday morning such
that the flash flooding threat should also end. The 850 mb front
will become diffuse but large scale ascent from the western Continental U.S.
Trough will still be overhead. With a moist southwesterly flow
aloft...widespread rain is expected to continue through Sunday and
into early Monday. A secondary cold front will eventually move
across the area by Tuesday as the large upper trough is kicked
eastward across the northern plains. The kicker trough will dive southeastward
across the central and Southern Plains during the middle of next week
which will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms possible along and south
of I-20. Dry weather should finally return by the end of next
week as a surface high and shortwave riding build across the region.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 73 61 63 54 / 50 60 60 90
mlu 74 63 73 61 / 10 30 30 40
deq 65 48 51 47 / 100 100 100 100
txk 68 53 55 49 / 80 90 90 100
eld 70 62 67 55 / 30 60 70 90
tyr 69 46 49 46 / 80 90 80 90
ggg 72 49 54 49 / 70 80 80 90
lfk 75 61 65 54 / 40 50 50 50


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for arz050-051-

OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for okz077.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for txz096-097-




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