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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
703 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

high clouds will continue to move into the area from the southwest
during the taf period...but VFR conditions will prevail at most of
the taf sites through most of the taf forecast. A few hours of MVFR
conditions are possible at klfk/kmlu/keld around sunrise as br is
expected to develop. A slight chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms
is possible Friday afternoon/ a cool front moves through
the region. As of now...will leave precipitation out of the tafs because
confidence is low at the moment. Mostly light and variable winds can be
expected overnight...with northerly winds between 5-10 kts on


Previous discussion... /issued 418 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015/

this afternoon water vapor and satellite data indicated a closed
upper level low pressure system over Mexico providing Pacific
moisture across West Texas and region around the low resulting in
showers and thunderstorms. The moisture in the middle and upper level
was also streaming across south Texas and across the southern
sections of the four state region especially for East Texas and
northwest and north central Louisiana. With weaker disturbances
aloft and afternoon heating showers and thunderstorms had
developed over parts of south Texas and over parts of the
southeast states. The four state region was under a weaklyamplified
ridge of high pressure aloft which also has helped provide very
warm daytime high temperatures even with some of the cloud cover.
The upper level low pressure system to the saddest will continue
to retrograde across Mexico and the Baja California region through Friday. An
approaching upper level short wave...over the Southern Plains this
afternoon...will deepen and move through the base of a broad upper
level trough over the northeast quarter of the country...nudging a
cold front into the forecast area on Friday and Friday night. Even
with limited moisture in the lower levels this system will provide
a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air is
expected in the wake of the front for Saturday...but this will be
short an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and
builds across the country. This ridge of high pressure will
continue to amp0lify as the western upper low pressure system
continues to move into the Pacific. Temperatures will remain
cooler through early Sunday...but expected to warm late Sunday and
Monday...until the next cold front moves into the four state

For much of next week high pressure on the surface and aloft will
prevail over the four state region. /06/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 68 89 63 83 / 10 30 20 0
mlu 68 89 61 82 / 20 30 30 0
deq 65 86 54 81 / 20 30 10 10
txk 66 88 59 82 / 10 30 10 10
eld 66 86 58 81 / 10 30 30 10
tyr 69 89 63 83 / 10 20 10 0
ggg 67 89 64 83 / 10 20 10 0
lfk 68 90 66 86 / 20 20 10 10


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...



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