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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1213 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Aviation...
southwest winds ahead of an approaching cool front along I-30.
This boundary will slide down toward I-20 overnight and stall
with variable winds for the County Warning Area. Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings overnight
with some showers/isolated thunderstorms from 06z -18z and from north to S
respectively this cycle. Surface winds becoming north for ktxk/keld and kmlu.
Aloft...we are SW 10-40kts...veering to west/northwest above 10kft and up to
50kts above fl300...so pretty light really and not likely to
change this week.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 913 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/

Discussion...
no convective development as of 9 PM this evening. Will update
zones and lower probability of precipitation a little. Best chance for the convection
will be after midnight...across south central Arkansas and points
east. This decision is based on a stable lower atmosphere and
lack of moisture. Current temperatures and forecast mins look good. Did
make some adjustments on qfp amounts...mainly for this evening due
to the lack of rain.

No other changes at this time.

/14/



Previous discussion... /issued 212 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/

Discussion...
lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM. Current wind
speeds across the region ranging from 20 miles per hour across deep East
Texas to around 10 miles per hour across southern Arkansas. Winds to settle
late in the afternoon as pressure gradient relaxes and a frontal
boundary moves into the region. Cold front extends from a closed
low in north central Texas to central Oklahoma while another weak
boundary extends across the Red River of North Texas and into
southern Arkansas. Could see a marginal severe weather threat this
evening into the overnight hours along the southern-most boundary
affecting portions of southeast Oklahoma...northeast Texas and
southern Arkansas as an upper-level disturbance slides east across
the region. Large hail to be the largest threat. Storms to
dissipate late tonight with lingering showers possible by
daybreak.

No significant airmass modification throughout much of the work
week. Temperatures to range from highs in the 70s and lower 80s to
lows in the 60s. However...a series of upper-level disturbances
interacting with stalled frontal boundary across the region to
allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day this
week. The most significant chances for convection will be late
Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold front with associated
upper-trough surges south. High pressure rebuilding behind the
front to bring cooler temperatures to the region with highs in the 60s
and 70s and lows in the 40s through the weekend. /05/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 61 79 61 79 / 20 20 40 40
mlu 58 80 60 79 / 10 20 20 30
deq 58 75 59 75 / 20 30 40 50
txk 59 75 60 77 / 20 30 40 40
eld 58 76 60 79 / 20 30 40 40
tyr 62 77 62 78 / 20 20 40 40
ggg 61 77 61 79 / 20 20 30 40
lfk 61 81 62 80 / 10 20 30 40

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

24/14/05

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