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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY FG OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THROUGH 14Z THIS 
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A BKN 5KFT CU FIELD HAS 
DEVELOPED OVER SE OK AND ECNTRL TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPILL S
AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT. A FEW CU WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER E
ACROSS SW AR/WRN LA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THIN
CIRRUS WILL SPILLING S THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE...SKC WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH 12Z. LT/VRB WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH 590 RIDGE INTO EAST TX BY FRI NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR/NORTH
LA...WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING UNSEASONAL WARMTH OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS.
GFS ALSO SLOWER THAN ECMWF WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THUS DELAYED ISOLD CONVECTION UNTIL TUE AFTN. 
POPS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLD DESPITE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ADDED
SOME 30 POPS NORTH MID WEEK WITH K INDICES REACHING INTO LOWER
30S. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF AREA NEAR END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO NO POPS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT APPEARING TO MAKE A SHARP 
PENETRATION ACROSS THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0 
MLU  78  52  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  79  54  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TXK  77  57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ELD  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TYR  82  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GGG  80  56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LFK  81  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15



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