Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1013 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Discussion...
persistant high pressure across the region maintaining hot
conditions areawide. Looking for Hight temperatures today to
approach 100 degrees with heat index values averaging around 105
to 110 degrees. Current forecast looks on track. No changes at
this time. /05/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 653 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/

Aviation...
VFR conditions to continue through the next 24 hours. Cannot rule
out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across deep East Texas near
klfk and across north Louisiana at kshv and kmlu. Expect southerly winds
to become light and variable through the remainder of the taf
period as high pressure retrogrades westward from southeast la into west
central la/deep East Texas.

Previous discussion... /issued 525 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/

Discussion...
water vapor imagery shows a strong ridge of high pressure
centered over the Oklahoma and Arkansas border this morning. As a
result...predominately clear skies are prevailing across the
arklatex. Even with the clear skies...temperatures are struggling
to fall below the 80 degree mark at this time...given dew points
in the lower to middle 70s. For this reason...expect another very hot
day to develop across the region...with heat index values climbing
to 105 degrees and above. In fact...850 mb temperatures will be
similar or slightly warmer than those of yesterday...before
climbing another degree or two on Thursday. Therefore...expect our
mini heatwave of 100 degree temperatures and high heat index
values to continue...and have expanded the heat advisory to
include all areas. Believe that the heat advisory will likely need
to be extended into Thursday as well...and may need to consider
upgrading a few areas to an excessive heat warning...as some areas
may see heat index values around 110 degrees. There will also be
a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms these
days...but it really looks somewhat marginal at best.

A brief break...if you can call it that...from this heat will
occur on Friday and Saturday...as the center of the ridge shifts
over New Mexico. That being said...it will still be hot those
days...but just not as hot...as 850 mb temperatures fall to around
20 degrees celsius. High pressure will then expand back across
the region early next week...with temperatures once again climbing
back into the triple digits for Sunday and the work week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 100 79 101 76 / 10 10 20 20
mlu 100 78 100 75 / 20 20 30 10
deq 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 30 20
txk 100 77 100 75 / 10 10 20 10
eld 99 76 98 72 / 10 10 20 10
tyr 99 77 101 77 / 10 10 20 20
ggg 100 77 101 77 / 10 10 20 20
lfk 99 76 100 76 / 10 10 30 20

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for arz050-051-059>061-
070>073.

La...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for laz001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz077.

Texas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for txz096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations