Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1039 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
cirrus is more than near US...it is overhead and piling into
northeast Texas along and north of the I-30 corridor. Freezing
temperatures have all warmed except for perhaps some of the valleys in mc
curtain County...but even they are up some 10 degrees from lows.
The fog is not an issue any longer...much less freezing fog. There
may still be some melting frost around at this time in shaded
areas. The highs for today look achievable...but the cirrus may
even become more than partly cloudy at times. The infrared satellite is
showing thickening along a swath over much of Texas south of the
Red River. In addition...the sun angle is already quite low and
filtering insolation can make a difference on our afternoon
readings maybe keeping a few northern sites in the upper 30s later
today. For now have updated mainly sky conditions and put a tad bit
more wind in for the afternoon. Updated suite of products has been
VFR conditions will prevail for the 18z taf period with just some
high thin cirrus affecting the I-20 terminals north to txk/eld.
Farther south at lfk...some 6k-7kft stratocu has worked north from
the coast this morning but is beginning to drift back southeast at this time so
ceilings will likely be clearing by 18z this afternoon leaving just the
cirrus above. Another cold front will be shifting across the region
later today with just a reinforcing shot of colder and drier air.
Light north/NE surface winds will follow in the wake of the front for the
18z taf period with speeds generally between 5-10 kts. Aloft...winds
will begin to shift back north/northwest up to 5kft with the passing front and
then more westerly/zonal above that with speeds reaching 75 kts by 25kft.
Previous discussion... /issued 321 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013/
cold conditions this morning with patchy freezing fog possible by
daybreak mainly across southern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana.
Temperatures to climb to around 50 degrees today with prevailing north
winds up to 10 miles per hour as high pressure rebuilds from the northwest.
High pressure to remain anchored across the region through Friday
morning with afternoon high temperatures around 50 degrees on Thursday
and low temperatures again falling to around freezing Thursday
Precipitation chances to increase across the Interstate 30 after
daybreak Friday...some of which could be freezing rain.
However...by mid-morning...all precipitation should transition
over to liquid as temperatures climb above freezing. Rainfall to
become widespread throughout the day and into the overnight hours
as a cold front pushes southeast across the area. Lingering
rainfall to diminish from the west on Saturday with high
temperatures climbing to around 50 degrees with gusty northwest
winds around 15 miles per hour.
Surface high pressure to rebuild across the region late in the
weekend providing dry conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period with high temperatures in the 50s to near 60 and
near freezing low temperatures each day. /05/
clear skies and calm winds allowing for patchy shallow fog to
develop across much of area...above a thin coating of frost...surface
temperatures below freezing in middle/upper 20s. Fzfg possible for brief
periods...mainly at kmlu where visibilities have remained mostly MVFR...with
patchy denser fog possible. Aside from this...and brief low clouds
from lifting fog...VFR conditions expected remainder of period through
12/12z. Mostly sky clear expected as well...except for upper level cirrus
generated by strong westerday flow aloft. A weak reinforcing cold front
this afternoon will bring north-NE winds 5 to 10 kts for a few
hours...otherwise...winds to remain light and variable. /Vii/
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 50 29 49 33 53 / 0 10 10 10 60
mlu 50 28 48 29 53 / 0 10 10 10 30
deq 45 20 46 27 47 / 0 10 10 10 60
txk 46 25 45 31 47 / 0 10 10 10 60
eld 49 23 46 28 51 / 0 10 10 10 60
tyr 48 27 47 35 49 / 0 10 10 10 60
ggg 49 28 49 32 50 / 0 10 10 10 60
lfk 50 31 52 35 55 / 0 10 10 10 50