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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1156 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Aviation...

Under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft expecting
VFR flight categories to prevail through most of the terminal
forecast period ending at 27/06z with the exception of late night
and early morning patchy mist/br...that will be briefly IFR in
some locations. VFR visibility returning by 14z where fog/mist
forms. Winds will be light and variable to light southwest through
26/14z increasing and becoming south 5-10 knots. /06/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

Discussion...
another clear night is expected across the arklatex. Southerly
winds today allowed for dewpoints to rise into the upper 50s to
middle 60s...and these show no signs of budging much. With that
said...have made some adjustments to min temperatures...especially across
our eastern areas. While dewpoints may fall some overnight...do not
see how they will fall much...and therefore...min temperatures would
necessarily be warmer than previously forecast.

Some patchy fog is already being observed across SW Arkansas/north central
la. Considering that the dewpoints are not expected to fall
much...patchy fog will likely linger across these areas through
much of the overnight hours. That said...have added mention into
the weather grids. Otherwise...no other changes are expected. Updated
products will be out shortly. /12/




Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

Discussion...
upper ridge axis emerging onto the High Plains will continue to
move eastward and eventually across the County Warning Area by Sunday afternoon. Very
similar conditions that were experienced today are expected for
tomorrow. Mostly clear skies...dry weather...and unseasonably warm
temperatures will persist with afternoon highs expected to reach the middle
80s. Southerly surface winds will begin to strengthen in response to a
developing surface trough Lee of The Rockies. More warm weather is
expected for Monday but the pattern will begin to transition. The
return of low level southerly flow will also allow Gulf moisture to surge
northward and stratus to advect northward from the Gulf of mx Monday morning.
Flow aloft will become southwesterly as an upper trough begins to move
across the northern plains.

Slow moving cold front will begin to move across the County Warning Area during
the day Tuesday. The models generally agree that most of the precipitation
with this system will be Post-frontal which would keep any threat
of severe weather very low. It appears the front will be weakening
as it moves across the area and with very weak upper support
combined with the time frame involved...there is still much
uncertainty where the best probability of precipitation will be. Current thinking is the
best rain chances will be north of I-20 on Tuesday and across southern
Arkansas/northern la on Wednesday.

A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the MS valley on Thursday
which will bring another cold front quickly through the region.
Latest European model (ecmwf) suggests some quantitative precipitation forecast potential with this second front but
I have trouble buying that solution. Northerly surface winds and northwesterly flow
aloft would suggest a lack of deep layer moisture when the second
front and upper trough arrives. Therefore...kept the second frontal passage dry.

Forecast beyond 00z Thursday is pop free. A highly amplified upper
ridge and a large surface high will build into across much of the
central Continental U.S. For the end of next week. The big story will likely be
the temperatures at the end of next week. Medium range models
indicate that a chunk of cold air will be dislodged from northern
Canada to sweep southeastward into the Ohio RV valley. Some of this cold
air will likely brush the region late next week leading to low
temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide. /09/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 61 86 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
mlu 58 86 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
deq 58 86 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
txk 62 85 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
eld 60 86 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
tyr 62 85 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
ggg 60 86 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
lfk 59 87 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

06

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