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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
553 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

Aviation...
a 50nm wide area of stratus over extreme eastern Texas/western la between above sea level
and mne continues to show signs of eroding from the north-northeast...and
should clear the shv terminal by 00-02z. Other MVFR ceilings should
linger though over East Texas along/S of I-20...but these ceilings may
lower/become low MVFR/IFR after 06z as the lower stratus over western
la spreads west. Meanwhile...low VFR ceilings should persist overnight
along/north of the I-30 corridor of NE Texas/SW Arkansas...closer to the low
level ridge axis in place. Am concerned for the potential for
patchy dense fog development later tonight over western la/extreme eastern
Texas once the low stratus clears these areas...thus have included
mention for the shv/ggg tafs. Given the weak surface winds in
place...the fog/low ceilings will be slow to lift Sunday...not doing so
until middle to late morning. MVFR/low VFR ceilings look to prevail after
18z across East Texas/southeast OK once a srly low level flow commences...with
no aviation concerns expected farther east over scntrl Arkansas/north central la.
Lt/vrb winds tonight will become south-southeast 4-8kts after 16z. /15/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 223 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

Discussion...
cloud cover and temperature pattern today will make for possible erratic
fog development overnight. Dewpoint spreads narrow to the north of
I-30...while eroding clouds from the east might also make for good
radiation cooling overnight. Ground still damp most of
region....but light easterly winds may continue overnight. Fog
could be dense...or not at all...so will simply go patchy fog areawide.
Warming trend next couple of days with gradually increasing
southerly flow...possibly even approaching lwa criteria Monday
afternoon as upper trough moving eastward towards area begins to deepen.
As has been the case lately...instability will be in question and
will see a mix of stratiform and convection....with any thunderstorms
most likely near frontal passage late Monday night into Tuesday...and
confined to regions south of I-20.

Most of area will be spared from freezing temperature behind this front...as
GFS indicates defined wraparound clouds moving back in after
midnight...although some portions of southeast OK/SW Arkansas may dip to just
around freezing mark. A quick turaround to southerly winds for the
latter part of the week will bring temperatures back to seasonally warm.
However...an even stronger cold front will sweep across the entire
County Warning Area for next weekend. /Vii/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 40 59 45 67 53 / 10 10 10 10 30
mlu 37 58 44 65 55 / 10 10 10 10 40
deq 38 55 42 62 45 / 10 10 10 20 30
txk 39 56 44 63 49 / 10 10 10 20 30
eld 35 57 43 60 51 / 10 10 10 20 40
tyr 42 59 46 67 50 / 10 10 10 10 30
ggg 41 59 45 68 51 / 10 10 10 10 30
lfk 41 61 46 69 55 / 10 10 10 10 20

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

15

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