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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
405 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Discussion...
cold front is finally beginning to enter the very northern fringes of
the County Warning Area. Front will continue to slowly progress southward before
completely clear our deep East Texas counties/central la parishes after
sunrise Monday morning. Scattered convection has developed during the
last couple of hours along the frontal boundary while more isolated
showers have across the southeastern zones in response to a weak upper level
disturbance over southeast la.

Maintenance of the convection along the front is quite uncertain
through the evening hours. The axis of an upper trough dives south-southeastward
across the MS valley and gives the cool and dry Post- frontal
airmass a strong push. The more stable air should scour our the
deep layer moisture. This should result in the showers/thunderstorms
dissipating as the front nears I-20 around sunrise. Model guidance
is in good agreement and this seems like a reasonable scenario.
Thus...will keep slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast through 12z Monday
morning.

Strong surface high with a much drier airmass will become established
during the day Monday. This will leave the area largely precipitation
free for much of the remainder of the forecast period. Deep layer
moisture will be cut off the area leading to dry conditions and
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs generally
in the middle 80s. /09/

&&

Aviation...

Mostly VFR flight categories for the four state area through the
terminal forecast period ending at 22/18z. The exception will be
with showers and possible thunderstorms during the evening with the
approach and passage of a cold front...and possible brief mist/br
near daybreak for southern parts of East Texas. Winds will be
light and variable to light northerly with some brief higher
speeds to 7-10 knots through early Monday morning when speeds are
expected to be north to northeast 8-12 knots. /06/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 66 87 58 83 57 / 20 10 0 0 0
mlu 63 85 55 81 57 / 20 10 0 0 0
deq 59 80 54 78 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
txk 61 81 56 80 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
eld 61 81 55 80 57 / 20 0 0 0 0
tyr 67 85 58 83 55 / 20 10 0 0 0
ggg 67 85 57 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0
lfk 69 90 60 85 60 / 20 10 10 0 0

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

09/06

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