Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1051 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

patchy light rain and freezing rain across portions of the County Warning Area
at this time. Temperatures have warmed above freezing along and south of
a El Dorado Arkansas to Quitman Texas line. Thus portions of the
Winter Weather Advisory needs to be canceled. However...with only
another hour or so remaining before expiration...will just let
it expire. By then...most of the northern areas should climb
above freezing. Will have watch McCurtain and Sevier County an extension of the advisory may be needed if the
lower elevations trap the cold air into the afternoon. Also
current rain in the area may have a slight wet bulb effect.

Remainder of the forecast looks OK. Light radar returns in Louisiana
zones should only bring trace will leave probability of precipitation at 10
percent in this area. Zone update will be issued shortly before
noon...prior to the advisory expiration. /14/


Previous discussion... /issued 557 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

for the 28/12z tafs...latest radar images indicate scattered areas
of precipitation occurring across the area. Lowest levels of the atmosphere
are quite dry and much of this precipitation is not reaching the
ground. The few reports which have been received suggest snow is
falling north of I-30 but a mix of fzdz and sleet is falling
farther south. Precipitation will become all liquid rain by middle morning
as temperatures rise above freezing and rain is expected to become
widespread across the entire area after 01/00z and continuing
through the end of the taf period. Bulk of precipitation should remain
north and west of the taf sites until this second round
arrives...with the possible exception of ktyr which could see some
precipitation before noon. Confidence of precipitation affecting the taf sites
before 01/00z was too low to warrant including it in the tafs at
this time.

VFR conditions should also prevail until the evening and
overnight hours. Ceilings/visibilities should deteriorate into at least the
MVFR as rain spreads across the area. /09/

Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Winter Weather Advisory has been extended this morning to include
Hempstead...Miller...Cass...Marion...Gregg...and Harrison
counties. Advisory continues through noon today as moisture moves
northeast across much of northeast Texas and into southwest
Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Precipitation type north of Interstate
30 remains snow with areas south experiencing a mix of
rain...sleet...and freezing rain.

All precipitation to transition to rain later this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing. Expect a gradual warming trend
over the next several days as surface high pressure across the
region shifts east. High temperatures on Sunday to climb into the 50s and
lows in the 40s by Monday morning.

A wet pattern to continue on Sunday as southwest flow of moisture
aloft overruns an a retreating area of cool surface high pressure.
Additional showers resulting from unsettled southwest flow will
support showers on Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front that
will push east across the region on Wednesday. Could see
thunderstorms associated with this front as it moves across the

Conditions to improve late in the week as dry high pressure
returns. High temperatures behind the front forecast to climb into
the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 49 43 57 47 54 / 20 40 60 60 60
mlu 52 43 59 47 53 / 10 30 60 60 60
deq 38 34 49 39 46 / 40 60 60 60 50
txk 40 36 50 40 47 / 30 60 60 60 60
eld 45 38 52 42 49 / 20 40 60 60 60
tyr 42 40 53 46 53 / 50 60 60 60 60
ggg 46 42 57 46 54 / 30 60 60 60 60
lfk 53 48 64 56 63 / 10 40 60 60 60


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: arz050-051-059-060-070.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: okz077.

Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: txz096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations