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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1146 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

Aviation...
IFR/LIFR ceilings with some patchy -dz over much of East Texas/SW Arkansas/central
la will persist overnight...with various MVFR/low VFR ceilings
expected to lower through 12z across north la as areas of -shra over
southeast Texas begins to spread east-northeast across the region through daybreak.
Can/T rule out embedded thunderstorms and rain mainly over deep East Texas/central la
through much of Friday morning...primarily affecting the lfk
terminal...but low confidence precludes mention elsewhere.
IFR/LIFR ceilings with reduced visibilities due to rain showers can be expected
areawide through much of Friday...before the rain showers begins to
diminish from west to east during the afternoon. Afterwards...could see
some slight improvement in ceilings to low MVFR by late afternoon/early
evening over southeast OK/western Arkansas and possibly portions of NE Texas...but
generally...IFR ceilings and 4-6+sm visibilities should linger through the
end of the 06z taf period. NE winds 4-8kts will continue through
Friday evening. /15/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 921 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/

Discussion...
moisture building up from the coast...with 0z soundings suggesting
much additional moisture neeed at kshv above 900 mb for anymore
than drizzle to occur. However...this warm front may surge
slightly northward...so maintaining a strong gradient for probability of precipitation remainder
of the night...categorical in East Texas lakes and Toledo Bend...with
possible isolated thunder...all the way to no probability of precipitation until after
daybreak for most of SW Arkansas. Light NE winds bringing in lowering
dewpoints underneath moisture influx...so a pre warm front
overrunning set up. Temperatures will fall to near dewpoints by
daybreak...which should be just a few degrees below current
readings for much of the area...although dewpoints may rise south
sections closer to the warm front. /Vii/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 45 49 40 53 39 / 60 90 20 10 10
mlu 44 49 39 52 39 / 60 90 50 10 10
deq 41 49 36 51 36 / 20 40 20 10 10
txk 42 48 37 51 37 / 30 60 20 10 10
eld 43 49 36 51 36 / 40 70 30 10 10
tyr 45 50 40 53 40 / 70 80 20 10 10
ggg 45 50 40 53 39 / 70 80 20 10 10
lfk 49 52 42 55 41 / 80 100 20 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

15

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