Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1157 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Aviation...

VFR flight categories forecast for the terminal forecast sites across
the four state area until around 21/10z when patchy fog may
develop reducing the surface visibilities to 3-5 statute miles. Not
confident that the lower than 3 statute miles visibilities will
occur as did early Monday morning. Late tonight and early on
Tuesday a lower deck of clouds around 4-5 kft will spread
southeast over the area. Winds will be light and variable until
after 21/14z when winds will be east to northeast 4-7 knots...becoming
light and variable after 22/00z. /06/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 933 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/

Discussion...
winds have already become calm across most of the County Warning Area this
evening which is leading to little if any dry air advection. This
has kept dewpoint values several degrees higher than anticipated.
Additional high clouds are also expected to move into the area
from the west through the overnight hours. Therefore have decided to
raise min temperatures by a couple of degrees areawide for
tonight/Tuesday morning.

Updated products will be sent shortly. /09/

Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/

Discussion...
water vapor imagery is indicating a pocket of drier air shifting
southward behind the departing upper trough...essentially choking off the
isolated convection that developed earlier this morning over eastern OK
and western Arkansas. Scattered cloud cover has slowly drifted southward into the northern
half of our County Warning Area but temperatures have still rebounded quite nicely
from this morning...some 30 degrees in fact at most locations.
Over the next few days...the upper ridge currently over the eastern
rockies and the plains will build ewrd and allow this pleasant
Fall weather pattern to prevail through middle week.

By Thursday...an upper trough and weak cold front will shift across
the middle section of the country but limited moisture return and the
lack of upper level energy should limit convection across our
region. For now...will keep slight chance probability of precipitation across our extreme
northwest zones and may need to look at expanding them a bit farther
south and east if the European model (ecmwf) solution is to be given much merit.
Temperatures should increase heading into the weekend as the upper
ridge expands ewrd once again and south winds return...producing
temperatures slightly above climatology through the extended. /19/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 53 81 56 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
mlu 52 80 53 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
deq 52 79 53 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 10
txk 54 79 55 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
eld 51 79 51 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
tyr 56 81 58 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 10
ggg 52 81 56 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
lfk 54 84 56 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

06

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations