Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1159 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 15 2014

Aviation...
VFR conditions will continue through the 06z taf period. Sky clear will
prevail overnight...although extensive areas of cirrus will
increase from the west after daybreak across southeast OK/East Texas...before
rapidly spreading east and affecting the remainder of the region by
late morning/early afternoon. This cirrus shield should diminish
from west to east Wednesday evening. Surface ridging in place this evening
over the middle MS valley SW into East Texas will gradually shift east
overnight...resulting in lt/vrb winds over much of the area aside
from lt southeast winds returning to portions of East Texas. Southeast winds will
increase to 8-12kts after 15z...with gusts to 20kts possible from
late morning through the afternoon at the tyr terminal. /15/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 957 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 15 2014/

Discussion...
clear skies overhead...but thin cirrus skirting northern tier.
Some of this could disappear with our precipitable water at two tenths. Many
locales north and east have been calm since sunset and dew points
have taken a hit in the wrong direction from fresh vapor out of
the soil. We still see scattered low 30s and with temperatures falling
the residual heat from the day is going to run out as the top soil
continues to cool. 18z model dew points are almost unreasonable
compared these middle evening readings...but thinking is that
overnight we will fall back through the dew point. Tough
call...but have decided to leave well enough alone in that event.
The second night is typically the coldest night for our east and
we will go with that for pattern recognition. The highest pressure
around is just to our east at Greenville MS and Tallulah la at
1025 mb. So there is still some light NE winds in north central la
for perhaps a little mixing...but cold air mass may have modified
just a little too much today...that couple with the early calm
this evening. Only change to weather grids is push back patchy
frost from midnight to match freeze warning in the wee hours prior
to daybreak. At any rate...better safe than sorry with the last
gasp of winter is the four state area. Plants should be safe from
here out until next fall. /24/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 36 65 45 71 54 / 0 10 10 10 10
mlu 31 64 42 70 55 / 0 10 10 10 10
deq 31 65 41 67 47 / 0 10 10 20 20
txk 35 65 42 68 51 / 0 10 10 10 20
eld 30 63 40 69 52 / 0 10 10 10 20
tyr 36 68 49 71 52 / 0 10 10 10 10
ggg 36 67 45 71 53 / 0 10 10 10 10
lfk 36 68 49 72 57 / 0 10 10 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: arz050-051-060-061-072-073.

La...freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: laz004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: okz077.

Texas...none.
&&

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