Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
920 PM PDT sun Aug 31 2014
continued very warm on Labor Day...then minor cooling trough the end
of the week as a trough of low pressure deepens over the west. This
trough will also produce gusty mountain and desert winds each
afternoon and evening. The marine layer will slowly deepen through
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
The eastern Pacific Ridge that brought the hot weather of the past
few days will weaken through Tuesday as a long wave trough deepens
over the Gulf of Alaska. However...Monday will be another warm day
with maximum temperatures close to today levels. The ridge flattens on Tuesday
and Wednesday as a low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska
tracks southeast. This will bring minor cooling trough Tuesday
through Thursday along with a deeper marine layer. A southerly dip
in the jet stream and stronger onshore surface pressure gradients
will contribute to gusty afternoon and evening winds in the
mountains and deserts through Friday. The marine layer will deepen
and low clouds will spread farther into the valleys each day through
Long range outlook for next weekend and beyond...the long range
forecasts forecast the trough to lift northeast next weekend and be
replaced by weak ridging over Sonora Mexico and the southwestern
states. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS hint at weak southeast monsoon flow late
next weekend or early next week. However...the long range forecasts of
late have offered these tantalizing solutions only to disappoint.
But at least it gives US faint hope of monsoon precipitation before the
season comes to a close. Confidence is low and precipitation chances too
low to mention in the forecast.
010300z...coast/valleys...areas of low clouds with bases around 1000
feet mean sea level and tops to 1300 feet mean sea level forming along the coast and currently
impacting ksan with broken ceilings. Expect coverage to
increase...spreading inland 10-15 miles through tonight. Kcrq likely
to be impacted by 07z...and ksna by 09z. Ceilings could lower to below
1000 feet mean sea level between 10z and 14z with areas of visible 3-5
miles...locally at or below 2 miles along coastal mesas. Clouds and
fog should clear to the beaches by between 15z and 17z. Confidence
in the timing and heights of ceilings is moderate at best.
Mountains/deserts...unrestricted visibility with scattered clouds at or
above 20000 feet through Monday.
800 PM...no hazardous marine weather expected through Friday.
south to southwest swells will likely produce periods of strong
longshore and rip currents at the beaches through Labor Day. A
beach hazards statement remains in effect for the Orange and San
Diego County beaches through early Monday evening.
spotter activation will not be needed Monday.
California...beach hazards statement through Monday evening for the beaches
in the Orange County coastal areas...San Diego County