Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
144 PM PST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
a disturbance over the region will create the possibility of light
isolated to scattered showers over the foothills and mountains
this afternoon. Snow levels will hover around 6000 feet...with
mainly light accumulations above 7000 feet. Building high pressure
aloft and weak offshore flow will create dry and warmer weather
through the weekend. Dry and slightly cooler early next
week...with night and morning low clouds and fog along the coast
by middle next week.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
The 03/1200 UTC European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in good agreement through the
short-term...and slightly differ in the long-term.
At 1 PM PST...water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper-
level trough over northern Baja California...and an upper-level ridge off
the coast of the Pacific northwest. Composite radar displayed isolated
showers over portions of the coastal waters...and the San Diego
County mountains. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to
be possible over the foothills and mountains through this
afternoon as the trough moves southeast. The mountains will have the
greatest chance of Rain/Mountain snow. Snow levels will hover
around 6000 feet today...with light accumulations possible above
Upper-level ridging will build over the area through the
weekend...and create a slow warming trend through Sunday. Surface
high pressure building over the Great Basin and lower surface
pressure to our SW will create periods of breezy north to northeast
surface winds through mountain passes and along coastal mountain
slopes in San Bernardino County and Riverside County Wednesday
morning...with gusts near 45 miles per hour expected. Portions of the inland
Empire could observe breezy conditions at times...as well. Winds
will then become more easterly and slightly weaken Thursday
through Sunday...and favor breezy conditions through mountain
passes and along coastal mountain slopes in San Diego County and
The ridge will then break down early next week as northwest flow
redevelops aloft. This will help lower high temperatures a few
degrees...redevelop low clouds and fog along the coast and
strengthen onshore flow.
032114z...coasts/valleys/mountains...few-sct clouds at around 2000-
5000 feet mean sea level...at or above 10000 feet mean sea level and mostly unrestricted visible through
04/0300 UTC...except for some showers developing over the mountains
and coastal foothills through 04/0300 UTC which will bring broken cloud
decks in the 3000-10000 feet mean sea level layer and local visible at or below 2sm. 04/0300
UTC-1500 UTC...possible broken-scattered clouds in the 2000-4000 feet mean sea level layer
over coastal and valley areas...although confidence is low in broken
ceilings at or below 3000 feet mean sea level impacting ksan...kcrq...kont and ksna. Ground
fog may occur in some valley locations...such as kont...krnm and
kriv...but confidence in this occurring is also low.
Otherwise...unrestricted visible continuing.
Deserts...few-sct clouds at or above 10000 feet mean sea level and unrestricted visible
through Wednesday morning.
114 PM...no hazardous marine weather expected through Sunday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.