Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
340 am PST Monday Dec 22 2014
high pressure aloft will strengthen near the California coast
through Tuesday bringing a warming trend. Surface high pressure over
the Great Basin for late today through early Wednesday will bring
gusty northeast winds near the coastal foothills with strongest
winds for late tonight through Tuesday morning. A trough of low
pressure moving southeastward across Nevada and California for
Christmas day will bring cooling and gusty west to northwest winds
for the mountains and deserts. Surface high pressure over the Great
Basin will bring gusty northeast winds near the coastal foothills
for Friday and Saturday with slightly below average high
temperatures for Friday through the weekend.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Short term (today through wednesday)...
high pressure aloft off the California coast will strengthen through
Tuesday...then begin to weaken Wednesday. Surface high pressure over
the Great Basin will bring periods of gusty northeast to east winds
along and near the coastal mountains slopes for tonight through
early Wednesday with strongest winds late tonight into Tuesday
morning. High temperatures will warm to around 10 degrees above
average on Tuesday...then cool a few degrees on Wednesday.
Long term (christmas through sunday)...
a low pressure system moving southeastward through the Great Basin
on Christmas day will bring cooling to near average high
temperatures for Christmas day with gusty west to northwest winds in
the mountains and deserts. Slightly below average high temperatures
will follow for Friday through the weekend with periods of gusty
northeast winds for Friday and Saturday.
221105z...patchy stratus over the coastal waters and local visible 3-5sm
in br/haze west of the mountains will clear by 15z. Otherwise a few
clouds at or above 20000 feet mean sea level and unrestricted visible through Tuesday morning.
NE to east winds will increase over and SW/west of the mountains late
tonight. Local gusts surface gusts 35-45 knots...areas of low level wind shear...and
moderate-strong uddfs possible with these winds...including vicinity kont and
310 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.
310 am...a decreasing west-northwest swell will continue elevated
surf today...mainly in southern San Diego County. A reinforcing
long-period west-northwest swell will arrive late Tuesday/early
Wednesday...likely continuing elevated surf and strong rip currents into
Thursday. Morning high tides around 7 feet could contribute to minor
tidal overflow through Tuesday. See the beach hazard statement for
offshore flow and drier conditions will develop across far Southern
California for late today through Wednesday. Gusty northeast winds
will develop near the coastal foothills late today...peak late
tonight through Tuesday morning...then weaken into Wednesday.
High temperatures will warm through Tuesday...then begin to cool
Wednesday. Lowest inland humidities will fall to 10 to 15 percent
for Tuesday and Wednesday...then recover Thursday. Increased fuel
moisture due to recent precipitation will limit the potential fire
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
California...beach hazards statement through Tuesday morning for the beaches
in the Orange County coastal areas...San Diego County
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 am PST Wednesday for
the Orange County coastal areas...Riverside County
mountains...San Bernardino County mountains...San
Bernardino and Riverside County valleys-the inland Empire...
San Diego County mountains...San Diego County valleys...
Santa Ana Mountains and foothills.