Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
330 am PDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
a trough of low pressure will remain near the West Coast into next
week. This will maintain onshore flow with temperatures a little
below average...with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds
and fog extending into the inland valleys...and with gusty west
winds in the mountains and deserts each late afternoon through late
evening.
&&
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...
Short term (today through Memorial day)...
a trough of low pressure will remain along the West Coast will
maintain onshore flow. This will keep high temperatures a little
below average. The marine layer will remain near 3000 feet deep with
areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending into
the inland valleys. The onshore flow will bring locally gusty west
winds to the mountains and deserts each late afternoon through late
evening. Winds this afternoon and evening should be slightly
stronger than Friday...enough for isolated gusts to around 50 miles per hour in
the windiest locations in the northern Coachella Valley and near the
ridge tops of the San Diego County mountains. Winds a little
stronger for Sunday...then a little stronger Monday than on Sunday.
This would bring advisory strength winds for Sunday with a little
greater coverage of advisory strength winds for Monday.
&&
Long term (tuesday through friday)...
the European model (ecmwf) has trended slightly weaker with the trough of low
pressure moving inland through California on Tuesday. While still
more amplified than the other guidance...it is much closer in
amplitude to the other guidance. Also with the slight reduction in
amplitude...500 mb heights with the most amplified solution only
fall to around 570 dm...usually not sufficient for rain in Southern
California. The most likely scenario now...if any precipitation were
to occur at all...would be for some light precipitation along and
west of the mountains from the marine layer. Otherwise...the main
impact of the trough passage will be stronger onshore flow for
advisory strength west winds in the mountains and deserts and some
minor additional cooling. Modest warming for Wednesday through
Friday as 500 mb heights slowly rise.
&&
Aviation...
251030z...coast/valleys...areas of stratus will have bases around
2000-2500 feet mean sea level and tops to 3000 feet mean sea level...with clearing between 16z
and 18z. Most visible will remain above 5 miles. Stratus will redevelop
along the coast 00-02z this evening and spread through the valleys
overnight. Slower clearing is expected Sunday.
Mtns/deserts...mostly clear with unrestricted visible through Sunday.
Gusty surface west winds to 35 knots will develop Sunday afternoon over
the Desert Mountain slopes and through/east of San Gorgonio Pass.
&&
Marine...
astronomical high tides to 7.2 feet and below normal low
tides...with swings of 8.9 feet...will combine with slightly above
normal surf to bring a small chance of minor coastal flooding
through Memorial Day. The highest high tides will take place in the
late evenings and the lowest low tides will be in the early
mornings. Strong rip currents will continue through Memorial
Day...partly due to the swings in The Tides.
&&
Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...
California...none.
Pz...none.
&&
$$
Public...17
aviation/marine...Maxwell
