Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
120 PM PST sun Feb 1 2015
upper-level high pressure will create dry and warmer than normal
high temperatures through the week...with warmest days forecast
Thursday through Sunday. A redeveloping shallow marine layer will
create patchy night/morning low clouds and fog along the coast and
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
At 1 PM PST...water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper-
level low centered over southern Baja California...and an upper-level ridge
building over central California. Temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees f
warmer compared to this time yesterday.
Upper-level high pressure to our northwest will build over the
region and move to our south through the end of the week. H500
heights are forecast to build to around 582-584 dm by Thursday and
linger through Sunday...with those being the warmest days with
forecast highs of 5 to 15 degrees f above normal. Monday through
Wednesday will also be warm for this time of year...but a few
degrees cooler compared to later this week. Hi-resolution models
are hinting at a return of night and morning marine low clouds/fog
this week as weak onshore flow redevelops...mainly influencing the
coast and coastal valley locations. As the ridge
builds...night/morning low clouds may become more shallow and
generate patchy dense fog over coastal areas by Thursday. Dry
weather will continue through the next 7 days.
012045z...coast/valleys...through 02/0300 UTC...unrestricted
visible...with few-scattered clouds at or above 20000 feet mean sea level. 02/0300-1500
UTC...chance of patchy dense fog/low stratus developing within about
5 sm of the coast...possibly impacting ksan...kcrq and ksna. Bases
of low stratus would be around 300-500 feet mean sea level and tops 500-700 feet
mean sea level. Confidence in fog/low stratus affecting coastal taf sites is
low-to-moderate at the moment and most likely to occur late in the
night during the 02/0900-1500 UTC time-frame. Any fog/stratus should
clear out during the 02/1500-1700 UTC time-frame.
Otherwise...unrestricted visible and scattered-broken clouds at or above 20000 feet mean sea level.
Mtns/deserts...unrestricted visible through Monday morning. Sky clear becoming
scattered-broken clouds at or above 20000 feet mean sea level after 2100 UTC.
111 PM...patchy dense fog may develop tonight into Monday
morning...with visibilities less than 1 nm possible. Otherwise...no
hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.