Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
348 am PDT sun Sep 21 2014
the upper low that hung out along the central California coast on Saturday
will depart to our north and east today. This will result in
earlier clearing of the low clouds and an increase of 1 to 3
degrees in the high temperatures for most areas today. A building
ridge of high pressure will bring a noted warming trend for the
first half of the workweek...with above average temperatures
arriving by Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure moves inland along
the northern California and Oregon coasts Thursday and
Friday...bringing dry...cooler and breezy weather to Southern
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
The upper low pressure area...currently located roughly over
Fresno...is moving off to the northeast early this morning and is
expected to reach northwest Utah by late this evening. In the wake
of this synoptic weather feature...the pattern over socal will
continue to be onshore but with slowly rising upper level heights.
With the onshore flow continuing and subsidence aloft...we expect
the marine inversion to be rather strong yet again one more night
with a decent intrusion into the inland valleys likely. Then by
Monday night the intrusion will be quite a bit less with a
shallower marine inversion keeping the stratus decks mainly right
along the coast.
Upper heights continue to build a bit further through middle week
with temperatures generally rising to several degrees above normal
through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. Then a strong upper
trough is expected to drop south along the California coast
basically from Thursday through Saturday. The trough may drop a
strong closed low into the Great Basin and in the process a fairly
tight pressure gradient will develop across Southern California.
Although there is a some considerable disagreement in the medium
range models regarding strength of this system with the ecm being
the stronger and slightly slower model at this time...overall though the
general pattern is in good agreement. Strong winds will be
possible Friday through Saturday although the system will be
rather moisture starved at the south end and we still do not
expect much in the precipitation department for our region.
210945z...coasts/valleys...stratus with bases 2000-2500 feet mean sea level and
tops to 3000 feet mean sea level will spread into the inland Empire through
sunrise...reaching kont 12-13z. Local visible 3-5sm where stratus nears
higher terrain in the inland valleys. Stratus clearing between 16z
and 18z. Stratus will redevelop this evening with bases 1700-2200 feet
mean sea level...moving into the coastal airports after 03z and spread about 25
Michigan inland overnight.
Mountains/deserts...mostly clear with unrestricted visibility
through Monday morning.
245 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.