Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
930 PM PDT Friday Aug 22 2014
a trough of low pressure will continue over the west through Monday.
This will keep temperatures a little below normal...with locally
gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts in the late afternoons
and evenings. Areas of night and morning low clouds will occur at
the coast...becoming a little more extensive by Sunday. Increasing
high pressure aloft will bring warming next Tuesday through
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
There was cumulus over the mountains this afternoon...and some
stratus has formed near the coast this evening...especially in
Orange County. Acars soundings show a sloped marine layer from
around 800 feet at Lindbergh Field to 1300 feet at John Wayne
Airport. Stratus will mostly occur along the coast and San Diego
County valleys late tonight...with the inland Empire staying mostly
A long-wave trough will cover the western United States through Monday
or Tuesday and keep temperatures a little below normal inland...though near
normal at the coast partly due to water temperatures being still a few
degrees warmer than normal. The trough will bring in dry air in the
middle-levels with westerlies over so-cal. The marine layer will bring
the usual night/morning stratus near the coast...with slight
deepening of the marine layer over the weekend based on local WRF
moisture cross-sections. The trough will gradually move east early
next week as high pressure aloft builds over the West Coast and
brings warmer weather around Tue/Wed/Thu. What will soon become
Hurricane Marie is currently prognosticated to go about 800 Michigan to our
south-southwest around the middle of next week. This could bring
monsoonal moisture to our area at some point in the second half of
next week...especially if Marie takes a more northward track than is
currently predicted. 00z GFS currently has monsoonal moisture moving
into far Southern California around Wednesday...but the previous 12z European model (ecmwf)
kept things dry. The ridge should weaken a little bit late in the
week due to some troughing moving into the Pacific northwest.
230300z...coast/valleys...low clouds slowly returning to the coast
through 08z...then expanding inland 10-20 miles through 13z. Expect
bases to be 0900-1300 feet mean sea level with tops 1600-1900 feet mean sea level. Visible will be
restricted to less than 3 sm where the low clouds intersect the
terrain. Low clouds will clear to the coast between 15-18z. Sky clear with
unrestricted visible after 20z...with low clouds returning to the
coastal airports 24/02-06z.
Mountains/deserts...a few high clouds at or above 20000 feet mean sea level...with
unrestricted visibility through Saturday evening.
800 PM...no marine weather hazards are expected through Tuesday
a 4 to 5 foot south swell with a 12 second period will bring
hazardous surf to the beaches through Sunday. Surf heights 3 to 6
feet with isolated sets of 7 to 8 feet will be possible along south
facing beaches. Strong and dangerous rip currents are likely for all
beaches through the period. Surf may remain elevated into early next
week. A beach hazards statement and a high surf advisory are in
effect for San Diego and Orange counties respectively...see
laxcfwsgx for details.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...high surf advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for the beaches in the
Orange County coastal areas.
Beach hazards statement through Sunday afternoon for the beaches
in the San Diego County coastal areas.