Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
930 PM PDT Friday may 22 2015
Synopsis...a trough of low pressure and deep marine layer will
continue the cool weather through the weekend. There may be a few
light showers at times. Strong gusty winds will continue over the
deserts. Warmer Monday and Tuesday with weak high pressure over the
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Doppler radar detected isolated light showers this evening...but
rain totals were light with a few hundredths recorded between 6-9
PM. Most of this precipitation was over the mountains and foothills...but
Lindbergh Field did manage to pick up 0.01" between 8-9 PM.
The upper low that brought the showers this morning will lift
northeast and transform into a large long wave trough over the
western third of the nation this weekend. Deep boundary layer
moisture and strong onshore will persist over Southern California
which will keep weekend temperatures a little below average.
Isolated showers are possible from time to time...especially on
Sunday when a stronger shortwave moves south down the California
interior. Gusty winds will continue in the lower deserts through
Weak ridging will begin building over the region Sunday evening for
warmer days and a shallower marine layer for Memorial Day and
Tuesday. The ridge holds breaks down Tuesday night and another long
wave trough is projected to deepen along the West Coast for minor
cooling and a slightly deeper marine layer the middle of next week.
Aviation... 230330z...multiple low cloud decks...with bases from
2500-8000 feet mean sea level...will continue over and west of the mountains
overnight. Isolated -shra will continue to be possible through Sat
morning as a disturbance exits the region. Coastal areas will become
few/scattered again by late Sat morning...with many inland locations
remaining scattered/broken throughout the day Sat.
Westerly wind gusts of 35-45 knots will continue across portions of the
deserts and through mountain passes through Sat evening. This will create
possible moderate-strong uddfs/low level wind shear and rotors over and east of the mountains
Marine... 830 PM...no hazardous marine weather is expected through
Beaches... 830 PM...long-period south swells arriving late Sunday
will peak Monday at 3 feet/16 seconds...and gradually lower Tuesday
into Wednesday. These swells will likely to produce strong rip and
longshore currents late Sunday through Monday...with some elevated
surf in Orange County and northern San Diego County through the
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...Wind Advisory until 2 am PDT Sunday for San Diego County
deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.