Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
155 PM PST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
clear and unseasonably warm weather will continue this week with
high pressure aloft and surface high pressure over the Great
Basin. Slow cooling late this week to closer to normal high
temperatures as high pressure aloft weakens. Precipitation may
return to the area by the middle of next week.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
At 1 PM PST...water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper-
level ridge centered over Southern California and southern
Nevada...stretching north into Idaho. Visible satellite showed
clear skies over the County Warning Area. East to northeast wind gusts of 20 to
30 miles per hour were observed through mountain passes and along coastal
mountain slopes. Temperatures for many areas in the low
desert...valleys and coast were in the middle to upper 80s.
The upper-level ridge and breezy downsloping offshore
winds will help raise inland high temperatures 15 to 25 degree f
above seasonal normals this afternoon. Locations where record
high temperatures have already been tied or broken so far today...
Location new record old record high
high so far today
Alpine 82 (tied) 82 in 1991
Escondido 87 86 in 1991
San Diego 82 77 in 2008
Santa Ana 92 86 in 2012
The upper-level ridge will slightly weaken Wednesday...then remain
fairly stationary aloft through the end of the week with continued
weak offshore flow. Lowering heights will help limit high
temperatures to only reach 5 to 15 degree f above normal by the
weekend and into early next week. Expect low afternoon relative
humidity to continue through the end of the week...with a slight
increase in values by the weekend.
Models continue to hint at an upper-level trough moving across the
region next week...but differ in the details. Confidence is
increasing that precipitation may return to the area sometime
around next Wednesday or Thursday.
092100z...northeast winds 15-25 knots mainly in the foothills through
22z. Low level wind shear near ksna and kont through 22z. Clear skies tonight and
100 PM...no hazardous marine weather is expected through
east to northeast wind gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour will continue
through mountain passes and along coastal mountain slopes
today...with light offshore winds expected for the end of the
week. Min relative humidity values will dip into the teens each afternoon through
the weekend...with moderate overnight recovery. High temperatures
today will rise to 15 to 25 degree f above normal...then lower to 5
to 15 degree f above normal by the weekend. Fuel moisture levels are
not favorable for explosive fore growth...therefore no fire
weather products are expected at this time.
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.