Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
450 am PST Sat Mar 8 2014
surface high pressure will bring gusty northeast winds to 50 miles per hour
near the coastal foothills this morning...decreasing this afternoon.
Continued warming into Sunday with weaker winds. Slow cooling west
of the mountains Monday with greater cooling and a return of coastal
low clouds and fog Monday night and Tuesday with stronger onshore
flow as a trough of low pressure moves inland through the Great
Basin. Offshore flow will follow for Wednesday and Thursday with
greater warming for next weekend.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will bring gusty
northeast winds near the coastal foothills and through and below
passes and canyons this morning...decreasing this afternoon. Gusts
overnight have mostly been less than 50 miles per hour and mostly on the
coastal slopes. A recent ascent sounding from Ontario (departure
towards the east) showed a maximum northeast wind of around 43 knots at
3200 feet with a recent descent sounding (arrival from the west)
showing a maximum northeast wind of 42 knot at 3900 feet. After
sunrise...these stronger winds aloft should begin to mix down and
bring a period of stronger and more widespread northeast winds this
morning from after sunrise until around noon. Winds are expected to
decrease this afternoon.
The offshore flow...downslope west of the mountains...will push
warming towards the coast today with highs mostly in the 70s near
the coast and into the 80s in the inland coastal areas into the
western valleys. For Sunday...offshore winds will not be quite as
strong and more easterly rather than northeasterly. That will
bring similar to slightly warmer high temperatures for Orange County
and the inland Empire Sunday...with a little more warming extending
closer to the coast for San Diego County.
For Monday...the return of weak onshore flow will bring cooling west
of the mountains. For Monday night and Tuesday...a trough of low
pressure will move inland to the north and into the Great Basin.
This will bring stronger onshore flow with gusty west winds in the
mountains and deserts...greater cooling...and a return of night and
morning coastal low clouds and fog.
A period of offshore flow will follow for Wednesday into Thursday
with some timing issues possible given the modest spread in the
solutions of the global models.
For next weekend...stronger high pressure develops over the West
Coast and combined with weak offshore flow could bring even warmer
weather next weekend than this weekend for some areas.
081000z...gusty NE winds through mountain passes and canyons to 40 knots
through this afternoon. Low level wind shear will be possible at some aerodromes west of the
mountains otherwise...few high clouds through this afternoon and VFR conds
through Sun morning.
northwest winds will continue to diminish over the outer coastal waters
through the morning. Combined seas to 10 feet will begin to lower over
the next few hours.
A moderately sized northwest swell with a 15 second period will continue high
surf along San Diego and Orange County beaches through late this
morning. Surf 4 to 7 feet...with local sets to 8 feet...is possible
along west facing beaches. Strong rip currents will continue into
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...high surf advisory until 10 am PST this morning for the beaches
in the Orange County coastal areas...San Diego County
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for the Orange
County coastal areas...Riverside County mountains...San
Bernardino County mountains...San Bernardino and Riverside
County valleys-the inland Empire...San Diego County
mountains...San Diego County valleys...Santa Ana Mountains
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 3 am PST early this
morning for the waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
border extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.