Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
345 am PST sun Nov 23 2014
surface high pressure over the Great Basin and northwest winds aloft
will bring periods of strong gusty Santa Ana winds through Tuesday.
Gusty east winds will continue in the mountains and valleys of
Riverside and San Diego counties for Wednesday...weakening on
Thanksgiving. High temperatures toward the coast will warm into
Wednesday...then begin to cool for Thanksgiving into next weekend.
Farther inland...temperatures will cool into Tuesday...warm for
Wednesday and Thanksgiving...then cool into next weekend.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Short term (today through tuesday)...
the Wind Advisory for the mountains and deserts for onshore winds
has expired with gusty west to northwest winds continuing to
diminish. With moderate northwest winds aloft and surface high
pressure building into the Great Basin...strong gusty Santa Ana
winds will develop around sunrise below the Cajon Pass and in the
Santa Ana Mountains and foothills and strengthen during the morning
with strongest gusts to around 75 miles per hour possible. Gusty northeast
winds will diminish somewhat...but continue through tonight into
Monday. For late Monday into Tuesday...strong gusty northeast to
east winds will spread southward into Riverside and San Diego
counties with strongest winds in the mountains and inland valleys of
San Diego County.
Aircraft soundings show the base of the marine inversion ranging
from around 4500 feet near the coastal foothills to 2500 feet near
the coast. Satellite imagery shows coastal stratus quite patchy
from the coastal waters to the lower coastal mountain slopes. The
low clouds should scatter out quickly this morning with the
developing and strengthening offshore flow...especially for Orange
and San Bernardino counties.
High temperatures today will warm toward the the coast and cool in
the San Bernardino County mountains and deserts. For Monday...the
mountains and deserts will remain cooler as areas toward the coast
continue to warm. That will continue for Tuesday.
Long term (wednesday through saturday)...
for Wednesday...gusty east winds will continue for the mountains and
and valleys of Riverside and San Diego counties...decreasing on
Thursday. Warmest high temperatures for the week for many
areas...especially towards the coast will be on Wednesday...with
cooling developing near the coast on Thanksgiving. For Friday into
the weekend...onshore flow will return with a slow cooling trend.
Coastal low clouds and fog may return around late Friday night into
231025z...patchy stratus west of the mountains with bases near 1500 feet mean sea level
and local visible 3sm or less in br/fog in the inland valleys clearing by
15z. Gusty northeast winds developing 12-15z and continuing into the
afternoon. Strongest winds expected below the Cajon Pass...Santa Ana
Mountains and foothills...and little Bernardino mountains/northern Coachella
Valley where surface gusts will reach 40-55 knots. Strong-severe
uddfs...rotors...and low level wind shear are possible over and S/southeast of the mountains
low level wind shear likely vicinity kont and ksna 13-16z...with smaller chances of
low level wind shear near kpsp. Winds weakening somewhat late this afternoon and
tonight with gusts 35-45 knots. Otherwise variable clouds at or above 20000 feet
mean sea level and unrestricted visible.
245 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday
On Tuesday...local east wind gusts may reach 20-25 knots over the
inner coastal waters...mainly along the central and far southern San
Diego County coast. Confidence in strong offshore flow reaching the
coast is low to moderate at this time. Winds will begin to weaken
Tuesday afternoon. No hazardous marine weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Fire Weather Watch in effect for strong gusty Santa Ana winds and
humidities for Monday through Tuesday for the mountains...
valleys...and inland Orange County.
Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will develop around sunrise today
below the Cajon Pass and in the Santa mountains and
foothills...diminish somewhat for late afternoon into Monday...then
restrengthen for late Monday into Tuesday and spread southward into
the mountains and valleys of Riverside and San Diego counties.
Humidities will fall today with lowest humidities for Monday through
Wednesday with poor overnight recovery. Gusty east winds in the
mountains and valleys of Riverside and San Diego counties will
continue into Wednesday. Winds will continue to decrease on
Thanksgiving with a slight recovery in humidities.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...High Wind Warning from 4 PM Monday to noon PST Wednesday for
the Riverside County mountains...San Diego County mountains...
San Diego County valleys.
Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
for the Orange County coastal areas...Riverside County
mountains-including the San Jacinto Ranger district of the
San Bernardino National Forest...San Bernardino and
Riverside County valleys-the inland Empire...San Bernardino
County mountains-including the mountain top and front
country Ranger districts of the San Bernardino National
Forest...San Diego County inland valleys...San Diego County
mountains-including the Palomar and Descanso Ranger
districts of the Cleveland National Forest...Santa Ana
Mountains-including the Trabuco Ranger district of the
Cleveland National Forest.
High Wind Warning until noon PST Wednesday for the Orange
County coastal areas...San Bernardino County mountains...San
Bernardino and Riverside County valleys-the inland Empire...
Santa Ana Mountains and foothills.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for the Coachella