Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
305 am PST Thursday Nov 26 2015
a cold and nearly stationary low pressure system over the Great
Basin will bring cool weather through the Thanksgiving Holiday
weekend. There will also be a few periods of mostly light showers
through Friday evening...mainly for San Diego County. Gradually
warmer early next week.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
A cold low pressure system will remain centered in the vicinity of
the Great Basin into Saturday...then begin to move eastward on
Sunday...nudged eastward by a weak low pressure system that will
move inland through Southern California around Tuesday of next
week. High temperatures will remain below average through the
weekend...then begin to gradually warm early next week.
The placement of the upper low will continue the onshore flow
across San Diego County with weak offshore flow at times to the
north. This should mostly limit a few periods of mainly light
showers to the coastal waters and San Diego County into Friday
This weak offshore flow to the north may allow for a little
greater clearing and decrease in lower level moisture with
overnight low temperatures a little lower...perhaps sufficient for
patchy frost in the inland valleys and near freezing low
temperatures in the upper deserts. There would also be some
potential for patchy frost in portions of the lower deserts early
on Saturday and Sunday mornings.
261030z...sct/bkn clouds will continue over most areas from the
mountains west to the coast through at least Friday morning. Isolated
showers will also continue at times with a little better chance of
showers over San Diego County. Ceilings will be variable...3000-6000 feet
mean sea level and tops to 9000 feet mean sea level. Occasional MVFR ceilings developing late
this evening. Coastal mountain slopes and ridges will be obscured in
clouds/fog at times. Occasional surface wind gusts from the west 30-
40 knots will occur on Desert Mountain slopes and through San Gorgonio
Pass through about midday today...then gradually decreasing during
the remainder of the day.
230 am...gusty northwesterly winds of around 20 knots will continue
this morning. Isolated showers through Friday. No other marine
concerns at this time.
230 am...astronomical high tides will reach at least 7 feet through
Friday. Predicted highest tides along the open coast of San Diego
and Orange counties will be:
Today: 7.5 feet at 831 am PST
friday: 7.3 feet at 912 am PST
There is a threat of minor coastal flooding through Friday during
the morning high tides. Elevated surf of 3 to 4 feet and breezy
onshore winds could add to the flooding threat...especially with the
morning high tides. A coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
coastal Orange and San Diego counties through noon Friday. Strong
rip currents will likely occur with the elevated surf...and during
the transition from high to low tide each morning. Conditions will
improve this weekend.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Friday for Orange County
coastal areas-San Diego County coastal areas.
Pz...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am PST this morning for coastal
waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border and out
to 30 nm-waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border
extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.