Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
318 am PDT Friday may 29 2015
Synopsis...high pressure aloft will prevail through Saturday
and bring a warming trend with night and morning low clouds and
fog remaining much closer to the coast than earlier this week.
Dense fog will be possible during some of the late nights and
early mornings through Saturday. A trough of low pressure will
move through the West Coast early next week and bring cooling with
a deeper marine layer and increasing west winds in the mountains
and deserts...but overall...temperatures will be near seasonal
normals next week and with very little or no rainfall.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Well the marine layer is indeed quite a bit shallower this
morning. This is evident on the 00z sounding and the limited
extent of low stratus clouds this morning...mainly along the coast
and about 10 to 15 miles inland.
The upper level ridge axis will begin to move east into California
today. The warmest airmass aloft will spread across the state on
Saturday and with very little modification to the airmass...inland
temperatures will remain quite warm for Sunday too. Temperatures
then will be the hottest in the deserts with middle to upper 90s in
the High Desert and up to 105 in the lower deserts.
An upper closed low will sweep into the Pacific northwest Monday through
Tuesday and swing a weak upper level trough across California in
the process. This feature will bring a gradual cooldown to all
areas. Gusty onshore winds will be likely with the most wind prone
areas gusting up to 50 miles per hour at times Monday and Tuesday.
For Wednesday through the end of next week the synoptic flow will
be quite strong zonal onshore and some impulses moving through
the mean flow at times keeping winds occasionally gusty through
and below the favored onshore passes. Temperatures during this
timeframe will be near normal to slightly below normal.
290900z...low clouds will continue to spread inland this morning
into western parts of the inland valleys. Bases will be around 1200
feet mean sea level with tops reaching to 2000 feet and visible below 5sm along
inland edge of clouds between those elevations. Scatter out will
occur by 18-19z...but some beaches may not clear completely or for
very long. Low clouds will push ashore after 03z with bases slightly
lower at around 1000 feet mean sea level and not going quite as far inland
overnight. Above and beyond the marine layer...mostly clear and VFR
conditions today and tonight.
200 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.