Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
930 PM PDT Thursday may 23 2013
Synopsis...
daytime temperatures will remain a little below seasonal averages
through Memorial Day...with areas of night and morning low clouds
extending into the inland valleys. Strong onshore flow will continue
to bring gusty southwest to west winds to the mountains and deserts.
A low pressure trough will bring a chance for showers next Tuesday
into early Wednesday.
&&
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...
Tonight...satellite imagery at 800 PM shows low stratus already in
place over coastal portions of San Diego County. Expect the marine
layer to continue to fill in overnight across the San Diego County
valleys...Orange County...and the inland Empire...as a coastal eddy
develops over night.
Short term (friday through monday)...so-cal will remain in a
relatively stagnate pattern through Memorial Day with a trough over
the West Coast bringing slightly lower than average temperatures.
The current trend of morning low stratus for coastal area and inland
valleys will also continue as northwesterly winds off the coast
continue to promote the overnight development of a coastal eddy.
With the upper level trough firmly entrenched over the west through
the Holiday weekend...gusty winds will continue each day across the
mountains and deserts with the strongest winds each afternon and
evening. Wind advisories may very well be needed each day though
Monday for these areas where winds will gust to 45 miles per hour.
Long range outlook for late Monday through Wednesday...the European model (ecmwf)
remains bullish with its forecast of a deep closed low moving across
Southern California Monday night and Tuesday. If this wave were to
track across socal with the track and intensity forecast by the 120
hour forecast panel of the European model (ecmwf)...it would definitely rain. But the GFS
is at odds with the European model (ecmwf) and forecasts a somewhat weaker and more
progressive trough. Rain chances are in the forecast for this time
frame. At the very least...both patterns support several days of
cooler than average weather and a deep marine layer.
&&
Aviation...
240300z...coast/valleys...patchy stratus with bases 2100-3500 feet mean sea level
and tops to 4000 feet mean sea level...will continue to develop along most of the
coast this evening and push around 30 sm inland...especially in San
Diego and Riverside counties. Low clouds will be broken/scattered in Orange
County and the inland Empire. Visible of 3-5 sm br will be possible
where stratus meets higher terrain. Low clouds will clear towards
the coast between 16-18 UTC Friday...then redevelop along the San Diego
County coast early Friday evening...then over the Orange County coast
and around 40 sm inland by middle Sat morning.
Mts/deserts...westerly wind gusts around 35 knots will continue to be
possible over the mountains and desert slopes through early tonight.
Otherwise...mostly clear with unrestricted visible through Friday evening.
&&
Marine...
a 5-8 feet/11 second northwest swell will continue to create choppy...rough seas
in the outer coastal waters through tonight. Conditions may be
hazardous to small craft.
Higher and lower than normal tides...with swings of 8.9 feet...will
combine with surf to create potential minor coastal flooding Friday
through Memorial Day. Strong rip currents will be possible through
the Holiday weekend.
&&
Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...
California...Wind Advisory until 3 am PDT Friday for the Coachella
Valley...Riverside County mountains...San Diego County deserts...
San Diego County mountains.
Pz...none.
&&
$$
Public...ba/moede
aviation/marine...jjt
