Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
930 PM PDT Monday Aug 31 2015
a trough of low pressure along the West Coast will continue to bring
cooler weather most of this week...along with night and morning low
clouds in coastal and valley areas. Dry conditions will continue
through early next week. Onshore flow will bring locally gusty winds
to the Desert Mountain slopes and foothills during the late
afternoons and evenings. As the trough of low pressure weakens a
bit...slight warming will occur over the Labor Day weekend.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
It is a quiet evening weatherwise this evening...except for a few
wind gusts around 40 miles per hour in the normal windier Desert Mountain
slope/foothill locations...including San Gorgonio Pass...and
areas of stratus are making a push inland from the coast. An eddy is
over the coastal waters now...and shown by the 8 knot wind from the
south at Lindbergh Field...so the current 2000 foot marine inversion
height should rise a little bit overnight and result in most areas
west of the mountains having stratus by around sunrise Tuesday.
The low pressure trough over the West Coast will be persistent most
of this week and bring a benign weather pattern with that night and
morning stratus usually pushing into the valleys...but clearing most
everywhere each day as the cooler air aloft will keep the inversion
from being too strong. Monsoonal moisture will stay well to the east
and southeast due to westerly/southwesterly flow aloft. Daily high
temperatures will mostly be a little below normal...though
near-coastal lows will be a few degrees above normal due to the
local sea surface temperatures mostly in the lower to middle 70s.
Ensemble solutions next weekend mostly have the West Coast trough
weakening for some warming and a more shallow marine layer...though
most solutions still have some troughing continuing. Monsoonal
moisture will continue to stay out of our area...including any
associated with tropical depression 14-E...which should also stay
southeast of our area.
010300z...coast/valleys...low clouds with bases between 1600 and
1900 feet mean sea level and tops near 2300 feet mean sea level will continue to filter inland
over the coast and valleys through 13z Tuesday. Portions of the
inland Empire...including kont...may see minor visible restrictions of 4-
6 sm with haze at times between 10z and 18z Tuesday. Otherwise sub 3
sm visible will be limited to areas where low clouds and terrain
intersect. Low clouds are expect to clear to the coast between 17z
and 18z...leaving sky clear and light sea breezes for Tuesday afternoon.
Mtns/deserts...sky clear with unrestricted visible through Tuesday evening.
800 PM...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.
800 PM...a mixed southerly swell from activity over the tropical
Pacific will continue to bring elevated surf and a high rip current
risk to local beaches through early Thursday. Highest surf will
occur Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 3-4 feet surf and local
sets to 6 feet along southwest facing beaches. Lower surf heights and
weaker rips are expected late Thursday into early Saturday...before
a long period southerly swell arrives early next week.