Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
313 am PDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
high pressure will expand westward into California bringing a
warming trend with near to slightly above average high
temperatures. The marine layer will become gradually shallower
through Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will arrive on Wednesday and
linger into next week...bringing a chance of mainly afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms mainly for the mountains...
deserts...and inland valleys.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
High pressure over the central and Southern Plains will expand
westward into California the next few days with the center of the
high pressure lingering near The Four Corners for the weekend into
next week. This will bring warming with near to slightly above
average high temperatures. The exception may be the lower deserts
for Wednesday and Thursday when an influx of lower level moisture
decreases high temperatures slightly with and increase in
For coastal areas...the marine layer is still near 1500 to 2000
feet deep with stratus slower to move inland than last night.
Satellite imagery shows widespread stratus over the coastal
waters extending locally inland. The stratus may spread inland as
far as the far western valleys through sunrise. The marine layer
is expected to be a little shallower for tonight int Wednesday
morning...with much patchier stratus limited to areas near the
coast for Thursday through the weekend.
Monsoonal moisture will begin to arrive on Wednesday and will
linger into next week. This will bring a chance of mainly
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms...mainly near the
mountains...deserts...and inland valleys.
280930z...coast/valleys...stratus with bases 1200-1500 feet mean sea level slowly
filling in along the coast and up to 15 Michigan inland this morning.
Expect ceilings at ksan and kcrq by 12z. Stratus clearing 15-
17z...returning to the coastal airports 29/06-09z and spreading 15-
20 Michigan inland overnight. Bases will be slightly lower...generally
around 1000-1400 feet mean sea level. Otherwise...increasing clouds at or above 15000 feet
mean sea level early Wednesday morning and unrestricted visible.
Mtns/deserts...increasing clouds at or above 15000 feet mean sea level early Wednesday morning
and unrestricted visible prevailing.
240 am...there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the coastal waters Wednesday night through early Thursday afternoon and
again late Thursday night into Friday morning. Otherwise...no hazardous
marine weather is expected through Saturday.
245 am...there is a slight chance of thunderstorms at the beaches
Wednesday night into early Thursday afternoon and again late Thursday night
into Friday morning...though exact timing is uncertain. Lightning will
pose a risk to beach goers should any thunderstorms develop.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.