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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH 
SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE 
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE 
WEST...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE WORK WEEK.  
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST FOR NEXT 
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK INLAND ACROSS THE WEST 
COAST THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN 
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR. ONSHORE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...CURRENTLY AT 
ABOUT 6 MB SAN-IPL AND 3.3 MB SAN-DAG. WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE 
LOW 30 MPH RANGE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE LOW DESERTS. 

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE INVERSION WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE 
COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BE SOMEWHAT 
UNORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY 
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A 
FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AT TIMES...AND OVERALL IT 
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG 
THE WEST COAST INTO MIDWEEK. ONLY MINOR WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS 
WE REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL 
REDEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
WITH VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNINGS...BRINGING WARMER AND 
DRIER CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS 
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS 
WILL PREVAIL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES 
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH MINOR COOLING FOLLOWING THURSDAY AS THE 
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO REDEVELOP.

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 
FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD MOVE 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS A 
LITTLE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD SEE A GREATER COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE 
WEEKEND WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 
DESERTS AND MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. 
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME...DARE I SAY IT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS 
USUAL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT TOTALLY FALLING APART BY THE 
TIME IT REACHES US...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING...BUT IT IS 
ALSO NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO 
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT THOUGHT I 
WOULD AT LEAST GIVE YOU A GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THE MEANTIME. 

&&

.AVIATION...
260330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT 
MSL...AND TOPS 2000-2500 FT MSL WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INLAND 25-35 
MILES THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BKN LOW 
CLOUDS ARRIVING AT COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. VIS 
RESTRICTIONS TO 3 SM OR LESS WILL OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT 
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS TO 5 SM POSSIBLE AT KONT 
AFTER 10Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BETWEEN 16Z AND 
19Z SUNDAY MORNING. FEW AOA 1500 FT MSL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST 
FROM 20Z SUNDAY TO 04Z MONDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL. 
OTHERWISE...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...A NW SWELL PEAKING AT 9 FT 14 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT 
THE OUTER WATERS IN AND AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND BY SUNDAY 
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL 
ACCOMPANY THE SWELL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL 
APPROACH...BUT NOT EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE 
OUTER WATERS. BOTH THE SWELL AND WIND WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY ON 
MONDAY...WITH NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A NW SWELL...NEAR 7 FT AT 14 SECONDS WILL BEGIN ARRIVING 
ALONG NON ISLAND SHADOWED BEACHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEN COMBINED 
WITH A 2 FT SOUTH SWELL AT 17 SECONDS...SURF OF 3-6 FEET...AND LOCAL 
SETS OF AROUND 8 FEET ALONG EXPOSED WEST-NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES 
ARE LIKELY. HIGHEST SETS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND 
HUNTINGTON BEACH...AND EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF SOUTHERN SAN 
DIEGO COUNTY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH 
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL TAKE EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.SKYWARN... 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY 
     EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO 
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA

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