Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
128 PM PST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
high pressure and weak to moderate offshore flow will create
dry...warmer and breezy weather through Sunday. Onshore flow
redeveloping next week will create a cooling trend and help
redevelop night and morning low clouds and fog along the coast.
Precipitation and colder weather may return Wednesday as a trough
moves across the region.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
The 04/1200 UTC European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in relatively good agreement
through the long-term.
At 1 PM PST...water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper-
level trough stretching from central Baja California northeast into the
northern plains...an upper-level ridge off of the West Coast
nudging into the Pacific northwest...and a weak upper-level shortwave trough
around 450 miles SW of San Diego. Visible satellite showed mostly
clear skies across SW California.
The aforementioned upper-level ridge will build over northern California
through the weekend. This...along with a cut-off upper-level low
developing near northern Baja California from the aforementioned
shortwave...will create breezy easterly winds through mountain
passes...canyons and coastal mountain foothills Thursday through
Sunday. Winds will increase throughout the mornings and slightly
diminish through the afternoon...with Friday morning forecast to
be the windiest day. Gusts to 50 miles per hour will be possible
Friday...with windier locations such as Sill Hill...possibly
observing gusts near 60 miles per hour as surface high pressure peaks near
1035 mb over the Great Basin. Downsloping surface winds and rising
heights aloft will increase high temperatures to 5 to 15 degrees f
above normal for this time of year by Sunday.
On Monday...the ridge will start to break down...and the cut-off
low to our south will move east out of the area. This will allow
northwest flow to develop aloft...start a slow cooling trend
through Tuesday...and redevelop marine layer stratus and fog along
the coast by Tuesday morning. Models show a trough moving across
northern and central California next Wednesday...and generate cooler
weather and light precipitation over portions of the County Warning Area. As of
now...precipitation does not look widespread next Wednesday...so a slight
chance of showers will continue in the forecast for mainly inland
042030z...unrestricted visible and mostly sky clear through Thursday morning.
NE winds 15-25 knots gusting 30-35 knots over mountain ridges...through and
below passes/canyons...along coastal slopes and into coastal
foothills will produce moderate-strong uddfs/low level wind shear over northern
areas this afternoon...spreading into San Diego County tonight into
Thursday morning. Kont...ksna and kpsp may receive gusty NE winds
and possible low level wind shear at times...but confidence is not high.
1230 PM...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.