Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
100 PM PDT Friday may 29 2015
Synopsis...high pressure aloft will bring warmer weather through
Saturday...and keep night and morning low clouds and fog closer to
the coast. A trough of low pressure will move over the west early
next week...increasing onshore flow...deepening the marine
layer...and bringing gusty west winds across the mountains and
deserts. Overall...dry with seasonal weather through next week.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Marine stratus burned off by middle morning most land areas...but
remained over some beach areas and over the coastal waters into the
early afternoon. Winds were light...but a few of the wind-prone
corridors into the deserts had gusts around 25 miles per hour.
It will be warmer this weekend...but mainly inland...while the
coastal areas experience typical Spring weather. This should be
welcome for the Marathon Sun morning with morning clouds and
temperatures in the 60s expected.
A shortwave ridge is building over the region through Sat. This will
help to lower the marine layer and bring additional warming into the
valleys and deserts. Near the coast...the marine layer will keep
temperatures more moderate. As the inversion strengthens...clearing
may be only partial along the immediate coast each afternoon...but
most areas should see at least a few hours of sun each day. The
warmest day is expected to be Sat...with some cooling sun...and
better cooling next week as the ridge moves east and a trough moves
over the west.
Winds will be gusty out of the west again early next week across the
mts/deserts as the trough moves inland. Temperatures will be a few
degrees above average inland for the next few days...then fall back
a few degrees next week as the onshore flow and marine layer ramp
The 12z GFS/ec model solutions are similar until Wednesday of next week
when the timing and intensity of the waves moving off the Pacific
differ. The ec model is holding back and deepening a trough over California
on Thursday. This has been the model trend for some time now so looks
plausible. If the ec solution verifies...there would actually be a
chance for more light precipitation over socal during the latter half of
Aviation... 292000z...mostly clear this afternoon...except for a
few patches of low clouds at the San Diego County beaches. Low
clouds will push ashore after 03z Sat with bases slightly lower at
around 800-1000 feet mean sea level...not extending quite as far inland
overnight. Expect clearing to the coast between 18z and 19z Sat.
Otherwise...mostly clear with unrestricted visible through tonight.
100 PM...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.