Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
354 am PDT Friday Oct 24 2014
high pressure aloft will bring one more warm weather day today
across the region. For Saturday it will be cooler with low clouds
and fog extending into the coast as a high pressure ridge shifts
east. A trough of low pressure moving through on Sunday will
increase westerly winds...and may deepen the marine layer enough
for patchy drizzle west of the mountains. Much cooler and breezy
on Sunday...then gradually warming up through Wednesday as
an upper level ridge rebuilds.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
One more warm day today...maximum temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal...as we generally remain under the influence of a strong
ridge centered over northern Mexico and southern Arizona and New
By late this afternoon...onshore flow will pick up as a strong
upper low and trough approaches the northern California coast. A
southern stream shortwave will pass over Southern California on
Saturday bringing a reinforcing shot of onshore flow and stronger
southwest to westerly winds through the mountains and into the
deserts. Wind gusts will approach 50 miles per hour in the most wind favored
locations such as near Mount Baldy. Another shortwave will pass
overheard Sunday night.
Marine layer is very shallow early this morning and only a few
patches of very low clouds early this morning. Marine layer will
gradually strengthen through this weekend with stratus decks
making further penetration each night. By Monday
morning...surface high pressure in the Great Basin will cause light
offshore flow to develop and should help to keep the stratus
relegated closer to the coastal zone. Stratus will be less and
less likely as offshore flow persists through much of next
week...although at this time in appears to be a minor event as the
Great Basin high is not expected to be particularly strong.
Nonetheless temperatures will gradually rebound through next week
with lower relative humidity.
240900z...coast...patchy very low clouds/dense fog is possible along
the immediate coast early this morning. Only small chances of low
ceilings/visible at most coastal airports...but local ceilings below 400 feet mean sea level
and visible below 1 Michigan could occur vicinity knrs...ksan...kcrq and kokb
between 08z and 15z. Otherwise...mostly clear with most visible at/above
5 Michigan will continue through Friday evening. More widespread low clouds
and fog could return to the coastal areas late Friday night.
Valleys/mountains/deserts...mostly clear with unrestricted visible
through Friday night.
200 am...patchy dense fog with visibility of one mile or less over
the coastal waters is possible this morning. Otherwise...no
hazardous marine weather conditions are expected through Tuesday.