Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
918 PM PDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
Synopsis...high pressure building over the west and offshore flow will
bring hot...dry weather Friday and Saturday. Gradual cooling next
week with a chance for showers Tuesday through Thursday as a
trough of low pressure off the Southern California coast slowly
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
This evening...satellite imagery shows variable middle and high clouds
moving over the region from NE to SW. Temperatures this afternoon were
generally several degrees higher than yesterday. Surface pressure gradients
remain weak but are trending offshore. With offshore flow
beginning to increase...it is unlikely that the marine layer low
clouds will return tonight...however a few patches of fog are
possible along the coast by early Friday morning.
Temperatures will increase even more on Friday as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the West Coast...with a low pressure system
over Sonora. The flow between the systems will bring offshore flow
to socal...helping to extend the hot air towards the coast. The
ridge and the offshore flow will be strongest on Friday. As a
result...Friday will be the hottest day with temperatures in the
upper 80s and low 90s near the coast and 95 to 105 in the inland
The high pressure ridge weakens a little on Sat as the low drifts
westward off the coast of Baja California. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees
lower than Friday...especially near the coast as the offshore flow
begins to weaken.
The slow downward trend in temperatures will continue through Tuesday a the
low pressure system remains nearly stationary off the coast of
northern Baja California. During this time...the low will entrain moisture
from the sub-tropics.
For Wednesday through Thursday...the low moves to the NE across the region
and will likely bring periods of showers and possibly
Significant inconsistencies in model solutions remain such that
the timing...amounts...and distribution of any rainfall is
090330z...there is a small chance of fog within 5 Michigan of the coast
10z-16z Friday...but confidence is low that it will reach any
coastal airports. Otherwise...unrestricted visible and scattered clouds above
20000 feet mean sea level will continue through Friday.
830 PM...no hazardous marine weather expected through Monday. There
is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday as
a low pressure system moves up from the south.
830 PM...a 3 foot/18 second southwest swell will produce strong rip
currents and elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with local sets to 7 feet
at southwest facing beaches over the Holiday weekend. Highest surf
will be Saturday...and a beach hazards statement covers the surf and
rip currents for then.
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
California...heat advisory from 10 am to 8 PM PDT Friday for Orange County
coastal areas-Orange County inland areas-San Bernardino and
Riverside County valleys-the inland Empire-San Diego County
coastal areas-San Diego County valleys-Santa Ana Mountains
Beach hazards statement from late Friday night through Saturday
evening for Orange County coastal areas-San Diego County