Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
300 am PST Sat Feb 6 2016
Warm and dry with gusty offshore winds through early next week. The
strongest winds will develop Sunday night into Monday morning.
Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages and the warmest
days will be Monday and Tuesday...when daytime temperatures will
reach the middle to upper eighties in many areas west of the mountains.
The offshore winds weaken after Tuesday and temperatures
decrease...but remain above seasonal averages.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
This morning...mostly clear and dry with areas of gusty offshore
winds. Offshore pressure gradients of -12.5 mb san-tph and -3.1 mb
san-trm continue to support wind gusts of up to 45 miles per hour in the wind-
The persistent upper-level ridge is weakening this morning in
response to a trough of low pressure moving inland across the Pacific
northwest...and the offshore winds will weaken somewhat later today as the
surface pressure gradients relax. By this evening the trough will have
moved inland to the northern rockies...after which time the upper
ridge will begin to rebuild and the surface high in the Great Basin will
strengthen. The resulting strong offshore flow and upper ridge will
combine to bring warm...dry and windy conditions to the region
through the first half of next week. The offshore winds are expected
to peak Monday morning with more widespread gusty winds...and
localized gusts of 70 miles per hour or greater will be possible in the wind-
prone locations. The winds will vary diurnally...with the strongest
winds during the early morning hours...weakening in the afternoons.
Expect the warmest days to be Monday and Tuesday...with daytime high
temperatures reaching the Michigan to upper 80s in many areas west of the mountains
For Wednesday through Sat...the upper ridge weakens in response to a low
pressure trough approaching from the northwest...and the offshore winds
decrease as the surface high in the Great Basin weakens. Temperatures
will also decrease...but will likely remain above seasonal averages.
061030z...NE-E surface wind gusts of 25-35 knots will continue below
passes/canyons/coastal mountain slopes through the weekend. Isolated
gusts to 50 knots are possible overnight and in the mornings. Areas of
moderate uddfs and low level wind shear are expected over/west of the mountains
otherwise...mostly clear with a few high cirrus and unrestricted visible
230 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Sunday. For
late Sunday night into Monday...gusty east to northeast Santa Ana
winds of 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots are possible near the coast...
mainly north of La Jolla.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for Orange County inland
areas-Riverside County mountains-San Bernardino County
mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County valleys-the
inland Empire-San Diego County mountains-San Diego County
valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains