Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
430 am PST Monday Nov 24 2014
surface high pressure over the Great Basin will bring periods of
strong gusty Santa Ana winds through Wednesday...with the strongest
winds occurring tonight through Tuesday morning. Combined with high
pressure aloft this will bring a warming trend with well above
average high temperatures west of the mountains. Onshore flow will
return for Friday through next weekend with a cooling trend. A
Pacific low pressure system for early next week has the potential to
bring moderate to locally heavy precipitation amounts.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Short term (today through wednesday)...
periods of strong gusty east to northeast Santa Ana winds will
continue through Wednesday with strongest winds expected late
tonight into Tuesday night...especially below the Banning pass...and
for the mountains and inland valleys of San Diego County. The trend
of the model guidance for the past 24 hours has been for the winds
to be not quite as strong as previously expected. Winds will mostly
be advisory strength or less into the afternoon and again Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday with warning strength winds for late
tonight into Tuesday morning.
High pressure aloft off the West Coast will migrate slowly inland
along the West Coast. Combined with the offshore flow this will
bring a warming trend through Wednesday with warmest temperatures
from inland coastal areas into the western valleys. This should push
high temperatures in these areas well into the 80s on Wednesday.
Long term (thanksgiving through sunday)...
weakening offshore winds will continue into Thursday. Onshore flow
will return for late Thursday through the weekend as a low pressure
system over the eastern Pacific moves slowly toward the California
coast. This will bring slow cooling for Friday with greater cooling
for Saturday and Sunday. Coastal low clouds and fog could return as
early as Thursday night into Friday morning...but more likely for
Friday night into Saturday morning. That low pressure system for
Sunday night into Monday and early Tuesday has the potential to
bring moderate to locally heavy precipitation amounts. While the
global models are now closer on the timing and amplitude of this
system...there are still differences with the details.
241030z...VFR conditions with scattered clouds at or above 20000 feet mean sea level
and unrestricted visible through tonight. Areas of strong offshore winds
this morning mainly in foothills. Stronger and more widespread
offshore winds tonight into Tuesday. Pockets of low level wind shear in valleys and
near coast when/where winds do not surface. Strong up/down drafts in
vicinity of mountains.
230 am...no hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday. For
a brief time Tuesday morning easterly wind gusts approach 25 knots
through a corridor off the central San Diego County coast creating
marginally hazardous conditions.
a red flag warning is in effect through Wednesday for strong gusty
Santa Ana winds and low humidities for the mountains...coastal
foothills...inland valleys...and inland Orange County.
The winds will be strongest each morning with the strongest and most
widespread stronger winds for late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Lowest daytime humidities will fall below 10 percent with poor
overnight recovery. Weaker gusty east to northeast winds will
continue into Thanksgiving day along with low humidities. Onshore
flow will return for Friday into next weekend with cooling and
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...High Wind Warning until noon PST Wednesday for the Orange
County coastal areas...San Bernardino County mountains...San
Bernardino and Riverside County valleys-the inland
Empire...Santa Ana Mountains and foothills.
Red flag warning until 6 PM PST Wednesday for the Orange County
coastal areas...Riverside County mountains-including the
San Jacinto Ranger district of the San Bernardino National
Forest...San Bernardino and Riverside County valleys-the
inland Empire...San Bernardino County mountains-including
the mountain top and front country Ranger districts of the
San Bernardino National Forest...San Diego County inland
valleys...San Diego County mountains-including the Palomar
and Descanso Ranger districts of the Cleveland National
Forest...Santa Ana Mountains-including the Trabuco Ranger
district of the Cleveland National Forest.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to noon PST
Wednesday for the Riverside County mountains...San Diego County
mountains...San Diego County valleys.