Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
355 am PDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
a trough along the West Coast this week will bring seasonal June
weather with night and morning coastal low clouds. Breezy at times
in the mountains and deserts.
&&
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...
The trough moving inland across California into Nevada this morning
deepened the marine layer a few hundred feet overnight and the low
clouds have spread farther into the San Diego valleys and the
southwest section of the inland Empire. This trough brought minor
cooling yesterday...as well as gusty winds in the mountain passes and
deserts. Expect a similar day today with breezy/windy conditions in
the San Gorgonio Pass this afternoon and evening.
The trough lifts northeast Thursday and Friday with weaker cyclonic
flow remaining over the West Coast through the weekend. This results
in a persistence forecast with only minor changes in the temperatures and
marine layer depth through Saturday.
On Sunday and Monday the 00z European model (ecmwf) and the 06z GFS forecast a second
Pacific shortwave deepening the trough along the West Coast. This is
a new wrinkle picked up by both models which would bring greater
cooling next Monday along with another round of gusty gap winds in
the mountain passes...most notable in the San Gorgonio Pass.
Long range outlook (tuesday through friday)...the European model (ecmwf) and European model (ecmwf)
ensemble mean retrograde a strong Southern Plains high westward
bringing warmer days to California next Wednesday through Friday.
850 mb temperatures reach 30c over the deserts Thursday and Friday when maximum temperatures
will likely reach 110 in the Coachella Valley and above 100 in the
apple and Lucerne valleys. The monsoon moisture advection looks
insufficient for any convective potential in Southern California.
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Aviation...
190900z...low clouds will cover coastal airports this morning with
bases around 1500 feet above sea level and tops near 2000 feet. Local visible along
inland extent of clouds will be 3-5sm. All this will clear out
around 16-17z. Low clouds will redevelop and move ashore this
evening around 03-07z and spread not too far inland overnight. Bases
will be similar or slightly lower around 1000-1200 feet above sea level.
&&
Marine...
winds have begun to decrease in the outer waters and will continue
to decrease this morning.
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Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...
California...none.
Pz...none.
&&
$$
Public...moede
aviation/marine...mm
