Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
150 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2014
unseasonably warm and dry conditions will prevail through
Sunday...with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above average.
Gusty east winds will also redevelop tonight over San Diego County.
Otherwise...a gradual cooling trend will begin on Monday...with the
marine layer and onshore flow returning by Monday night...as a
trough moves inland to our north. High pressure will slowly rebuild
over the region for the latter part of the work week and next
weekend...with dry and warmer conditions prevailing. Periods of
gusty offshore winds will also be possible midweek once again.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Water vapor imagery shows the large ridge of high pressure over the
west slowly shifting inland this afternoon...as a trough digs over
the Pacific. As a result...a few high clouds are approaching
Southern California from the west...which will likely make for a
pretty sunset this evening. Otherwise...temperatures are running 8
to 18 degrees warmer today than this time yesterday...with several
of our coastal locations even topping out in the lower 80s.
However...a weak sea breeze is returning to the coastal areas...as
the offshore gradients weaken at this time. Since the current wind
speeds are below advisory thresholds...will let the Wind Advisory
expire at 2 PM today. However...the local WRF shows the offshore
easterly gradient increasing again tonight...with the focus of the
upper level support now on San Diego County. The WRF shows 850 mb
winds ranging between 35 and 45 kts...so will issue a new Wind
Advisory for the coastal foothills and mountains of San Diego County
with the afternoon package. Otherwise...expect a very mild and
pleasant evening to prevail across the Southland this evening...with
another warm day in store for tomorrow...as temperatures remain
within a couple of degrees of those today.
Cooler conditions will then develop for the first part of the work
week...especially for areas west of the mountains...as a trough of
low pressure moves inland across northern California. The marine
layer will likely return to the coastal areas during this time as
well...with patchy low clouds and fog possible along the coast
during the late night and early morning hours. Onshore flow will
also return and strengthen on Monday...with some gusty west winds
potentially developing in the mountains and deserts. That being
said...these winds will quickly turn back offshore during the day on
Tuesday...as a surface high pressure ridge builds back into the
The models are also starting to hint that an upper level low will
form over Southern California late in the work week. If this
scenario happens rather than the building ridge...dry conditions
will still prevail...but temperatures will likely only see minor
fluctuations through the end of the work week. Weak offshore flow
may turn onshore flow on Friday...with a possible return of the
marine layer. However...it appears that the ridge will finally
rebuild by next weekend though...with dry and warmer conditions
082100z...gusty NE winds through mountain passes and canyons to 35 knots
through this afternoon. MDT uddfs and low level wind shear will continue over and west of
the mountains into tonight. Otherwise...few high clouds with unrestricted
visible through sun.
swell and surf will continue to diminish this afternoon...with
strong rip currents continuing into sun.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...Wind Advisory from 1 am PST to 5 PM PDT Sunday for the San
Diego County mountains...San Diego County valleys.