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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Diego California
454 am PST sun Mar 1 2015

Synopsis...
a cold low pressure system centered just north of Point Conception
will move very slowly southward today...then move eastward tonight
and Monday across Southern California as it weakens. This will
continue periods of showers into Monday with a slight chance of
thunderstorms for tonight and Monday. A second low pressure system
tracking southward farther off the coast could continue the chance
of showers for coastal areas for Monday night into Tuesday. For
Wednesday through Saturday...dry with a warming trend under high
pressure.

&&

Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...

Short term (today through tuesday)...
a cold low pressure system centered just north of Point Conception
will move very slowly southward today...then move eastward tonight
and Monday across Southern California as it weakens. Bands of
showers have continued overnight closer to the middle level cold pool
across about the northwestern half of Southern California. This
low pressure system is also drawing moisture and precipitation
northward across northern Baja California and far Southern California. This
moisture and precipitation will overspread San Diego County early
this morning and spread northward into portions of Riverside and
San Bernardino counties during the morning. This precipitation
will be more stratiform in nature...but showery on the northern
edge closer to the colder middle level air to the northwest. The
greatest potential for the heavier precipitation amounts today
will be in these areas. For late tonight into Monday... greater
shower coverage and intensity is possible across more of
southwestern California as the coldest middle level air moves across
southwestern California. There is also a slight chance of
thunderstorms for tonight and Monday.

A second low pressure system moving southward farther off the
coast could continue the chance of showers for Monday night into
Tuesday...mainly for the coastal waters and adjacent coastal
areas with a slight chance of showers near the mountains Tuesday
afternoon from residual moisture and daytime heating.

&&

Long term (wednesday through saturday)...
high pressure will bring dry weather with a warming trend for
Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

Aviation... 011000z...coasts/valleys/mountains...multiple scattered-overcast
clouds layers between 2000 and 7000 feet mean sea level continuing through Sunday
evening over and west of the mountains light to moderate showers will be
scattered to numerous today. Occasional ceilings 1000-1500 feet mean sea level under
the heavier showers and visible 1-3sm are also possible in the heavier
showers...and coastal slopes of the mountains will remain obscured in
clouds and occasional precipitation. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight. Any of these
thunderstorms may produce small hail...heavy rain...and gusty winds.

Deserts...isold-sct showers late this morning and continuing through
this evening with occasional visible 3-5sm under the heaviest showers.
There is a small chance of thunderstorms during this time...mainly
over the High Desert. Otherwise variable cloud layers above 7000 feet
mean sea level and unrestricted visible through Monday morning.

&&

Marine...200 am...periods of showers will occur through Monday
night...with isolated thunderstorms possible late this afternoon
through Monday night. These storms will have the potential to
produce small hail...brief heavy rain...gusty winds...cloud-to-water
lightning...and brief waterspouts. There is a chance of showers
Monday night into Tuesday. No hazardous marine weather is expected
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Skywarn...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...
California...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Riverside County
mountains-San Bernardino County mountains-San Diego County
mountains.

Pz...none.
&&

$$

Public...17
aviation/marine...jmb

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