Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
400 am PDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
drier weather will prevail through Thursday with above average
temperatures for inland areas. For Friday through Sunday...
monsoonal moisture may return with a renewed chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly in the mountains and
deserts. Drier weather will return early next week. The marine layer
and weak onshore flow will bring patchy late night and early morning
low clouds and fog near the coast.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Short term (today through friday)...
both the 12z and 00z nkx soundings were stable yesterday with
precipitable water values continuing to fall...down to 1.2 inches by
late afternoon. The drier weather will continue through Thursday
with inland high temperatures warming to around 5 degrees above
average. With the exception of a few high clouds...moisture from the
remnants of Hernan is expected to remain to the northwest...mostly
moving into central California. A marine layer near 1200 feet deep
will continue to keep coastal temperatures near average. Satellite
imagery shows a narrow sliver of stratus has finally return along
the coast. The workstation WRF continues to show only a slow return
of coastal stratus the next few nights with coverage mainly along
the coastal strip. Monsoonal moisture may begin to return Friday
with more afternoon clouds over the mountains and a slight chance of
Long term (saturday through tuesday)...
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS continue to advertise a greater influx of
monsoonal moisture for Saturday into Sunday followed by drying for
early next week. There is some potential for afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts to extend into
the inland valleys and also some potential for nocturnal convection
for Saturday night. The return of monsoonal moisture will bring
cooling for inland areas...followed by warming for early next week
as drying occurs.
300955z...coasts/valleys...patchy stratus with bases 600-1000 feet mean sea level
along the immediate coast will slowly develop northward and spread a
few miles inland through 15z. Local visible below 1 Michigan possible over
higher coastal terrain and portions of the San Diego coastal mesas.
Ksna will likely will remain VFR. Most areas will clear 15-16z.
Patchy stratus redeveloping along the coast after 31/06z and
spreading a few miles inland overnight. Bases will be slightly
higher...around 800-1200 feet mean sea level. Otherwise...sct-bkn clouds above
15000 feet mean sea level through Thursday morning.
Mountains/deserts...sct-bkn clouds above 15000 feet mean sea level through Thursday
morning. Some cumulus with bases around 9000 feet mean sea level developing over
the mountains this afternoon.
300 am PDT...no hazardous marine weather expected through Sunday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.