Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
249 am PDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014
high pressure building over the southwest will bring warm days and a
shallower marine layer through Friday. Over the weekend a trough of
low pressure will bring cooling and a much deeper marine layer.
Gusty winds will impact the mountains and deserts on Sunday. The
trough moves east Sunday night with minor warming early next week.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
The marine layer will be making a shallower appearance for the
remainder of the work week...with morning stratus relegated to
the coastal strip through Friday morning. This will be in
relation to the flat high pressure ridge that will develop across our
region today...then peaking Thursday and Friday over southern
Arizona/nm around 592 dm. Temperatures will warmup across all areas
with the greatest warming in the inland Empire and deserts.
Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees above normal on Thursday
Beginning Friday night and continuing through early next
week...onshore gradients will increase substantially and bring a
widespread dramatic cool down to our region...as a result of a
massive Pacific northwest low pressure system. Although the closest
precipitation will be several hundred miles north of San
Diego...temperatures will sway from nearly 10 degrees above normal
to about 5 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday.
Although models show a considerable amount of uncertaintly...middle
next week is hinting at a developing inside slider system that
could generate an offshore wind event around Thursday. Something
to keep an eye on in the forecast...although the details are murky
220930z...areas of low clouds will develop and dissipate mainly
along the coast of San Diego County this morning. Bases will be
around 1000 feet mean sea level. Areas visible 3-5sm on coastal mesas. Full scatter
out will occur by 16z. Even patchier low cloud coverage is expected
late tonight after 06z most likely only in San Diego County.
When/where ceilings occur...bases will be about 800 feet mean sea level and visible
3-5sm and locally at or below 2sm on coastal mesas. Otherwise...mostly clear
with unrestricted visible through tonight.
230 am...no hazardous marine weather conditions are expected through
230 am...surf will continue to be above normal with high rip current
risk today...although gradually fading during the day. See laxsrfsgx
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.