Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
317 am PDT Friday Aug 29 2014
surf will gradually subside today along favored southwestern
California beaches. High pressure aloft will begin to weaken later
today...allowing some cooling over coastal areas...but it will
remain quite warm inland. A broad low pressure trough developing
across the west will bring additional cooling and a return of marine
clouds over the Holiday weekend. Dry...with near normal late Summer
conditions to start out September...becoming cooler through the week
as a low pressure trough settles over the east Pacific.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Skies were clear over the region at 3 am PDT...but marine stratus
was streaming southeast well offshore. Surface pressure gradients remained
weak to moderate onshore to the lower deserts...and were beginning
to trend onshore to the high deserts. The gradient was supporting
westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour overnight through and below the
windier desert passes.
Strong high pressure aloft centered off the coast of Southern
California will begin to weaken later today and tonight as a broad
low pressure trough sags southeast across the pacnw and Rocky Mountains.
The trough will support slightly better onshore flow and a coastal
eddy which should help to restore the marine influence...especially
over coastal areas this weekend. Even as the trough moves east next
week...heights gradually fall over socal as the subtropical ridge
slips east and takes up residence over the lower Mississippi Valley
this opens the door for further height falls and cooling across the
west for the latter half of next week.
There is no sign of a return of monsoonal moisture over socal
through next week. The only model that hints at some moisture return
is the European model (ecmwf) toward the end of next weekend as the high over the
lower Mississippi Valley retrogrades back to the west.
Expect another very warm day today...but cooler along the coast in
the afternoon. Cooler west of the mountains over the weekend as the eddy
develops. Continued warm far inland. Dry with temperatures near late
Summer normals early next week...followed by below normal
temperatures later in the week.
290900z...mostly clear today through the evening. A patch or two of
low clouds are possible at the coast this morning...but are not
expected at coastal airports. Greater confidence that low clouds
will develop at coastal airports late tonight after 06z and continue
into Saturday morning. Bases around 1000 feet mean sea level.
200 am...no marine weather hazards are expected through Tuesday.
200 am...south swell will continue to diminish today...but still
sufficient for a high surf advisory in Orange County and a beach
hazards statement in San Diego County through 8 PM. For
details...see cfwsgx and srfsgx.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...high surf advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for the beaches in the
Orange County coastal areas.
Beach hazards statement through Friday evening for the beaches
in the San Diego County coastal areas.