Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
324 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 310 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014
A weak cold front is currently pushing south into the far northern
portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Ahead of this front
a dry airmass in place in the middle levels and low level wind
shear vectors are parallel to the front. The front is bringing an
increase in mid level moisture with it. Scattered storms are
beginning to develop along the front just north of the area
currently during the mid afternoon hours. This trend will continue
through this evening as scattered storms develop and move east
behind the front as the front moves south and the mean level storm
flow is to the east.
The Post frontal nature of the storms will be elevated. Further weak
Theta-east differences will limit the overall wind potential as well. Deep
layer shear will increase some from north to south this evening.
Instability will be tall and skinny and not overly strong...but
with the increasing shear a few strong storms capable of producing hail
up to the size of nickels. The strong to marginally severe risk
will overall be isolated in nature across the area with the better
chances east of the area across eastern Missouri.
Coverage in storms will decrease from north to south overnight as
the front sags south. A few lingering showers may be possible across far
south central Missouri early Monday morning before the activity
moves south into Arkansas.
Temperatures behind this front will only be slightly cooler as highs
top out in the middle 80s to lower 90s before a stronger cold
front spreads southeast through the region Monday afternoon.
Storms are once again expected to develop along this front. Deep
layer shear will be slightly stronger along with better Theta-east
differences than today. Still do not expect widespread severe
weather but a few of the stronger storms will be capable of hail
up to quarters and winds up to 60mph. Best potential for stronger
storms will be across south central Missouri where the best
instability will be located.
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 310 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014
A much cooler airmass will spread into the region behind the cold
front Monday night through much of the week...with a warming
trend returning late in the week into next weekend. Highs on
Tuesday through Thursday are expected to only warm into the middle
to upper 70s...which is well below normal for mid July and will
be very close to the overnight low temperatures experienced the
last few nights. Lows will drop into the 50s each night. The
coolest night will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when
lows in the lower 50s are possible as the surface high will be
over the area.
A piece of upper level energy will move south through the plains
then east across Arkansas Tuesday into Thursday. A few showers
may be possible across far southern Missouri Tuesday and Wednesday
as this occurs. A front will then lift back north on Friday and
may bring the potential for a few thunderstorms late in the week.
Highs in the middle 80s to near 90 will return by next Sunday.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am CDT sun Jul 13 2014
A weak cold front will push southward through the area later this
afternoon and into tonight...slowing as it approaches the Arkansas
border. This front will generate periods of showers and
thunderstorms from early his evening until later tonight across
the area. We are not expecting severe weather with this system
although a few stronger storms are possible. Precipitation will
diminish toward dawn. Included haze in the forecast as surface
conditions will be very moist. A brief period of MVFR is possible
at this time. Included a brief period of low level wind shear at
bbg early tomorrow morning. &&