Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1215 am CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the mesoscale convective vortex over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight's
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, wpc has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their day 1
There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.
Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation's midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.
The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1204 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some IFR fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have IFR Cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at kjln and kbbg. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.