Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 am CDT sun Jul 13 2014
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 253 am CDT sun Jul 13 2014
A band of showers and thunderstorms developed overnight to the
north of the I-70 corridor. While the main band of convection
remained north of I-70 as of 3 am, scattered weaker cells were
popping up from around Hutchinson, Kansas to the northern sides of
the Kansas City Metro. This activity was developing as a low level
jet stream interacted with outflow from the storms to the north.
As we head into this morning, a slow decay of this convection is
anticipated as it continues to slowly progress south. We do
expect some isolated to widely scattered activity to make it into
central Missouri. Meanwhile, a cold front will be on the move
southward and is expected to arrive in central Missouri by early
this afternoon. This front will then continue to move south and
should reach the I-44 corridor by late this afternoon. We are
expecting additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to
kick up along this front. Instability profiles may support some
small hail and gusty winds with some of these storms, but the
threat for severe storms looks limited. Temperatures ahead of the
front will be hot once again with perhaps some compressional
warming. Areas near the Arkansas border should reach the middle
90s this afternoon.
Convective coverage may then increase across southern Missouri
from this evening into the overnight period as a weak low level
jet gets established and lifts parcels in the 850-750 mb layer.
Again, a few of these storms could put down some small hail. If
any appreciable rainfall can be realized today/this evening, we
will have to watch for fog development late tonight, especially
along and north of the I-44 corridor.
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 253 am CDT sun Jul 13 2014
Any lingering activity should then push out of south-central
Missouri early Monday morning. Attention will then turn to a
stronger cold front which will push through the Missouri Ozarks
Monday afternoon. This front is also expected to initiate
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will be a
bit stronger on Monday, especially across the Eastern Ozarks. If
enough instability can develop ahead of this second front, a few
storms may be able to generate lower-end severe hail and winds.
The thunderstorm threat will then quickly end from north to south
from late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Refreshing northerly winds will kick in behind the front with a
much cooler and drier air mass advecting into the region from
Monday night into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will
only be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. We will have to watch for
some record low temperatures. One minor fly in the ointment that
will have to be monitored is mesoscale convective system development across the Central
High plains. Some of the global models want to periodically clip
far southwestern Missouri from Wednesday through Friday. This
seems unlikely as even the 850 mb front should remain well to our
southwest. The more likely scenario will be for these convective
clusters to move south-southeast towards the Red River valley
(where a lot of rain could fall this week).
The northwesterly flow aloft that will be present over the area
for much of this week will then begin to relinquish itself
towards next weekend. This could open the door to at least some
shower and thunderstorm potential. Temperatures should also begin
to nudge back upward late this week.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
VFR conditions will persist through much of the taf cycle.
Southerly winds tonight will shift to southwesterly during the day
Sunday. A brief period of low level wind shear remains plausible
around daybreak. A weak cold front will approach from the north
and support scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and
evening. Will continue with the prob30 groups at jln/sgf during
the afternoon and include bbg during the evening. Brief visibility
and ceiling restrictions to MVFR will be possible with any storms,
but this risk will be refined with future forecasts.