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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Short term...(today and Sunday tonight)
issued at 0345 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Canadian high pressure was sliding southeast across the region
early this morning. A colder and very dry air mass was also
overspreading the region with the high. Early morning temperatures
ranged from the middle teens across central Missouri to the middle
20s across southern Missouri. Temperatures will continue to get cooler
early this morning with lows in the upper single digits across
central Missouri to the upper teens across far southwestern
Missouri expected.

The high will spread east across the area and into the Ohio Valley
today. A nice temperature gradient will set up across the area as
highs range from the middle 20s across central Missouri to the
middle 40s across far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. As the
high moves off to the east to east to southeasterly winds will
develop and increase to around 10 mph this afternoon, especially
across the Western Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. A very dry air
mass is over the area and will result in afternoon minimum
humidity values falling to around 20 percent with some locations
dropping into the teens. These dry conditions will lead to an
elevated fire weather risk this afternoon where the winds
increase the most across southeastern Kansas and the western
Missouri Ozarks.

An upper level disturbance will dive southeast across the plains
tonight and across the region on Sunday. A strong low level jet
and warm air advection will develop across the area late tonight
into Sunday ahead of this disturbance. A warm nose will spread
into southern Missouri late tonight into Sunday. A dry air mass
is currently over the area and will take time to overcome for any
precipitation to reach the ground. Lift will be strong enough with
this system and should be able to overcome the dry air but will
cut down on amounts.

Precipitation amounts will be light with this event, but when it
begins, it will be in the wintry form, but will likely transition
to liquid from the west to east across much of the area during the
day Sunday. Models are showing that cloud ice will be lacking
across much of the area, expect for the far Eastern Ozarks early
Sunday morning, then that area loses cloud ice through the day.
Since cloud ice will be limited freezing drizzle will be the most
likely precipitation type when it begins across southeastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Across far central and south
central Missouri where cloud ice is present all snow will occur at onset.
In between the two areas a freezing drizzle, sleet, and or snow
will be possible late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Temperatures will warm from west to east during the day and the
freezing drizzle will transition to drizzle/light rain likely by
midday along and west of Highway 65. The snow across the Eastern
Ozarks could then mix with and change over to more of a freezing
drizzle by midday when cloud ice starts to become more limited
there.

East of Highway 65 a dusting to around 1" of snow, mainly across
the far Eastern Ozarks will be possible. Pockets of sleet will be
possible across southern Missouri, with a glaze of ice from
freezing drizzle possible across the entire area. Overall amounts
will be light but still could cause some impacts to Road
conditions early Sunday morning. Conditions will be improving
through the day from west to east especially east of Highway 63 as
temperatures warm through the day. The precipitation will spread
south and out of the area Sunday evening.

Lows Sunday night will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Confidence is high that light wintry precipitation will develop
across the area late tonight into Sunday, with the best chances
for minor snow accumulations occurring across the Eastern Ozarks,
with a period of freezing drizzle occurring before temperatures
warm from west to east. With the warming conditions any wintry
weather will be fairly short lived across southeasterly Kansas
and the Western Ozarks and last longer across the Eastern Ozarks
where colder conditions will residue longer.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 0345 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Warmer conditions will start to spread into the area early in the
week as highs in the 50s occur both Monday and Tuesday. An upper
level disturbance will track through the area Monday night into
Tuesday and may squeeze out some light rain or snow, mainly just
flurries with no accumulations expected.

A Big Warm up is then set to begin Wednesday continuing into
Friday as upper level ridging builds towards and over the area.
Highs in the 60s and even 70s will occur both Thursday and Friday.
Gusty southerly winds will develop over the region Thursday and
Friday and could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns both
afternoons across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

A front will track through the region on Friday, moisture will be
limited but some light rain may be possible. A slight cool down
will then occur behind the front for next weekend with highs in
the 50s expected.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1156 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper level disturbance will slide southeast across the region
from late tonight into Sunday. This system will bring a variety of
aviation impacts.

Ceilings will lower starting late tonight with MVFR expected
during the predawn hours. We are also expecting a light wintry mix
of precipitation to develop late tonight, however precipitation
onset time remains in question due to a very dry airmass which is
currently in place. We have therefore handled this uncertainty
with tempo groups.

Low level wind shear conditions are also expected from late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

By sunrise, precipitation should be ongoing over most areas with
freezing drizzle being the main precipitation type. Precipitation
will begin to diminish around Joplin and then Springfield by late
morning with temperatures warming to around the freezing mark by
midday. Ceilings will remain in the MVFR category.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...wise
long term...wise
aviation...schaumann

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