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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

..18z aviation update...

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 250 am CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

The frontal boundary that has been plaguing the area for the last
week or so has finally pushed a bit south of the region this
morning, as a mid level shortwave rotates through the area. This is
allowing somewhat drier air to filter into the area early this
morning, with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s, under
clearing skies.

Other than some patchy fog early this morning, today looks to
generally be a quiet weather day across the region. A very isolated
shower/thunderstorm or two may be possible this afternoon across the
higher/more complex terrain along the Arkansas state line, but the
vast majority of the day should be dry. Winds today will be out of
the southeast, with highs in the mid 80s.

A warm advection zone across the I-35 corridor in southern Kansas
and central Oklahoma should start to light up with a few
thunderstorms late tonight, with convection then shifting into the
western portions of the forecast early tomorrow morning. Convection
will likely be weakening as it moves into the area, with much of the
activity dissipating by late morning as the low level jet weakens.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 250 am CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

The first part of the day on Monday is currently looking dry for
most areas, before rain/thunderstorm chances increase substantially
heading into the afternoon and especially evening hours as a front
starts to approach from the north.

That front will make slow progress into the area Monday night,
slowing and possibly stalling out across the region as the upper
level flow becomes more zonal. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) suggest the
potential for heavy rain Monday night and Tuesday with this feature,
with model simulations suggesting pwats increasing well above
climatological averages for this time of year. The European model (ecmwf) is
particularly bullish with qpf, as it brings a stronger surface wave
along the front compared to the GFS. Either scenario, however, is
of concern given very saturated soils and lake and stream levels
running high. While perhaps a bit early to talk specific amounts,
right now it appears that widespread rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches will be possible through Wednesday.

Along with the rain potential, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be
rather cool given precipitation and abundant cloud cover. Highs
both days may only reach the mid 70s.

The front will start to wash out across the area by Thursday, and
perhaps try to return north as a weak warm front as an upper level
ridge begins to translate east and strengthen over Texas/Southern
Plains. This should spell a warming trend heading into next
weekend, with temperatures possibly returning to around 90 by next
Friday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Generally, VFR conditions are expected through the period. There
may be MVFR skies at times and perhaps an isolated shower near the
bbg terminal, however, didn't highlight given the relatively low
potential for either. Skies should begin to clear overnight at all
aerodromes. That will open up an opportunity for fog at bbg again
Sunday morning. At this point decided to go the conservative Route
and kept it in MVFR conditions, however, if winds indeed calm and
skies clear...IFR conditions cannot be ruled out.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...boxell
long term...boxell
aviation...Frye

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